澳洲Australia property The Recession we had to have .... | Sydne

在澳大利亚


As Labor wallow in opposition at the Federal level , but have managed to make a come back a the State level , it's interesting to wonder what effect a simple phrase might be having on Australian Politics.

After all " the Recession we had to have... " along with " the Banana Republic.... " have to be the two most memorable phrases associated Australias economy in recent years.

Labor have managed to regroup at a state level and are now in control almost every where except in Canberra. In Victoria and SA they were responsible for significant financial mismanagement but they have moved on.

But in Canberra not so . Maybe this is due to the political Genius ( John Howard ... :eek: ) :eek: :rolleyes: who is in charge of the Liberals , but there are persisting doubts about Labors ability to manage the economy , which may well be the deciding issue when there are no community wide issues polarising the community.

If this is so maybe it's Paul Keating legacy by the use of those two colourfull and so widely recalled phrases that is behind the Branding of Labor as poor Economic managers.

See Change  

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A chat that SC, BR, and I had on this topic.

Apologies, but I couldn't be bothered re-typing.

M

********

<Pitt_St> interesting numbers

<see_change> yep, the sydney ones blow out dramatically

<see_change> obviously as a result of low rates and increased affordability

<see_change> but one does wonder what is going to happen if we get back to more normal rates....

<Pitt_St> define "normal"?

<Pitt_St> fwiw and imho the days of double digit interest rates are gone

<see_change> forever ??

<Pitt_St> for the forseeable future

<Pitt_St> forever??!!!

<Pitt_St> dunno about you sc, but I am mortal

<see_change> how long is the foreseeable future ?

<Boyler_Room> hey Pitt_St

<Pitt_St> re: interest rates

<Pitt_St> hi br, too

<Pitt_St> as a result of the recession we had to have, the ALP have had their political b**** in a vice at the federal level for the last 9 years

<Pitt_St> we can agree on that, I presume?

<see_change> yes, but Keating accepted responsibility for it ... That was his mistake

<see_change> by saying that

<Pitt_St> and what does this government do?

<Pitt_St> it reminds us all of the ALP's sh*thouse record in that area every chance they get

<Pitt_St> every chance

<see_change> If he'd said it was inevitable due to outside forces, but we're doing every thing we can do to minimise it's effect, he would have come out of it better.

<see_change> He gave it a Short Catchy title , that EVERY ONE REMEMBERS , and associates with Labour

<Pitt_St> imho economic mismanagement remains the single biggest issue for the ALP federally.... they have yet to escape the implications of their past

<Pitt_St> yes he would

<Pitt_St> so the coalition says "we are better than them"

<Boyler_Room> poor choice of words

<see_change> but because of that phrase , it's easier to remember

<Pitt_St> and the coalition keeps saying "we are better than them"

<Pitt_St> and that "interest rates will rise under labour"

<Boyler_Room> do u think that who is in power really has THAT much affect on the rates?

<Pitt_St> now.......... if interest rates rise (approach or hit double digit rates) under the coalition, then their credibility is shot

<Pitt_St> shot like bonnie and clyde shot

<Pitt_St> full of holes

<Pitt_St> and if the ALP gets back in, they will bust their n*** trying to prove that they can manage the economy

<Boyler_Room> they would have to

<Pitt_St> yes

<Boyler_Room> erase a bad memory

<Pitt_St> so neither side wants to see 10%+ interest rates

<Pitt_St> double digits are not a good headline

<Pitt_St> <Boyler_Room> do u think that who is in power really has THAT much affect on the rates?

<Pitt_St> yes I do

<Pitt_St> barring completely erroneous exogenous shocks

<Pitt_St> 99% of the time interest rate pressures dont just appear out of nowhere

<Boyler_Room> other economic factors and management

<Pitt_St> they build up

<Pitt_St> over time

<Pitt_St> i have said it before, I will say it again..... the RBA is a dog on a leash

<Boyler_Room> poor results in retail and gdp

<Pitt_St> and the government is its master

<Pitt_St> rewind one step...... it is this fear of interest rate rises that has probably lead the RBA to raise interest rates before it was anticipated in recent times

<Pitt_St> a pre-emptive strike if you will

<Pitt_St> better to shoot the horse before it has bolted

<Pitt_St> returning to the RBA.... the RBA Act makes it clear..... the government is the ultimate boss in the event of any material disagreement on policy

<Pitt_St> and as it is, all RBA members are appointed by the government

<Pitt_St> u dont appoint loose cannons to the board of the RBA

<Pitt_St> so what happens if inflationary pressures creep up...........

<Pitt_St> well the RBA moves first

<Pitt_St> interest rates will rise

<Pitt_St> but no government in its right mind would let the standard mortgage rate hit 10%

<Pitt_St> monetary policy is the first weapon against inflation

<Pitt_St> but their are plenty of other policy weapons they can call upon as well

<Pitt_St> tax rates

<Pitt_St> prudential requirements for lending instititions

<Pitt_St> wages policy

<Pitt_St> etc

<Pitt_St> <see_change> how long is the foreseeable future ?

<Pitt_St> who knows

<Pitt_St> but I would say years

<see_change> I can't foresee that Pitt St....

<Pitt_St> each to their own

<Pitt_St> this is more about politics than economics

<Pitt_St> and we all know that if the political will exists, anything can be achieved

<see_change> just submitted thread  

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My memory tells me that the libs are not generally pro-active when it comes to policy change and tend to allow things to drift on the "not broke, don't fix" theory.

Twice though in my life they went to sleep at the wheel and crashed. The first time Gough sailed in on the "It's Time" slogan and the electorate believed it. The stagflation the Libs had engineered would be toxic to today's property investors. The second time Hawkie got in.

The Hawke/Keating government did a good job and our economy was getting back on course when the Libs took over again. I'm still not convinced it is a good thing but the GST was a genuinely pro-active step by the Libs and they are now awash with taxes which aint bad for a low tax party. :D

As for interest rates; The Yanks had very high rates too and you could hardly blame Keating for that. Most economic problems are imported. Australia has weathered the Asian meltdown and other problems well but neglected our infrastructure so that we now have record CADs in spite of good markets for our produce. Owing 7.2% of GDP is scandalous. We need another pollie brave enough to tell it how it is ie We had to sell MIM to pay for the Toyotas and plasma screens we love so much.

I am not a student of history, just relying on a fading memory.

Thommo  

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Thommo

I'm a Keating fan . What I'm saying is that his calculated use of Catchy phrases designed to grab the headlines at the time, by being so memorable, have actually backfired on Labour in the long term by remaining memorable, and continuing to label Labor.

See Change  

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I didn't like Keating but think he did a good job. And I agree about his catchphrases.

"The recession we had to have" was badly chosen but the "Banana republic" one was a true and timely warning. I still don't understand why he gets hit over the head with it. Must have been considered "un-australian" I suppose.

Thommo  

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If politics becomes more of a marketing contest than it is now we are going to be stuffed even more than we are now.

Politicians aren't going to do anything for fear of stuffing up which will mean Oz goes nowhere, or Oz follows SA. Oh ****.:D

pitty the java chat client is blocked by firewall at work.

Oh well

cheers
quoll  

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Thommo said:
"The recession we had to have" was badly chosen but the "Banana republic" one was a true and timely warning. I still don't understand why he gets hit over the head with it. Must have been considered "un-australian" I suppose.Click to expand...
The Oz Population / general public seems to really enjoy shooting the messenger or maybe it's the newspapers and media that drive them to it.

quoll  

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My flaky memory seems to agree with Thommo. Hawke/Keating brought in some very radical changes. Except for GST I don't think Howard has done much in particular. Now he has the Senate it might change.

Even economists can't agree cause and effect of policies on the economy.

MIT  

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quoll said:
If politics becomes more of a marketing contest than it is now we are going to be stuffed even more than we are now.

quollClick to expand...
Politics has been a marketing contest for a long time. I think Labor perfected it during the Hawke ( he got the job purely for marketting reasons- remember the Drover's dog ... ) Keating era but Liberals learnt their lesson and have been holding the amoral high ground ever since.

See Change  

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Sailing along happily this afternoon perusing some threads, started to read this one, read some more, mood plummets. What a choice hey, labour or liberal. No choice really. It's a challenge for me to think of any bright spots or talented pollies in todays political climate. Although didn't I recently hear that a couple of liberal backbenchers were putting together a private bill re the appalling plight of refugees - or perhaps they've been beheaded by the party machine by now.


Wow there's another Keating fan out there - helloooo. I agree his remark re banana republic and the other have proven to be extremely useful emotive fodder for the opposite camp.  

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see_change said:
Liberals .... have been holding the amoral high ground ever since.

See ChangeClick to expand...
I like it. Can I have it?

T  

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Thommo said:
I like it. Can I have it?

TClick to expand...

Nup ..... :eek:


See Change  

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imho.
it may mean nothing to anyone but i made all my money
in Mr Keatings TIME,not hawrkes,on the back of my ute
next to my plumbers sign,it said,i refuse to participate
in this recession...1995...
but thats tens years ago,i still think mr Keating started
what we enjoy today.........he was always ahead of his time.
good luck
willair..........  

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Werre you on 60mins Willair?  

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keating

Im glad the worlds greatest treasurer had so many fans. Lets see he abolished negative gearing then brought it back when the rental market nearly fell apart. Then the same great man then helped us again by bringing in Capital gains tax. Thanks for that one Paul. Then to slow the economy down he pushed interest rates to 18% and higher for business. The only thing that suprises me is that the economy recovered as well as it did.

I hope we never elect another great man like him again

Regards

Nigel Kibel


propertyknowhow.com.au  

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Keating also had his despised 'Balmain basketweavers' or 'the Volvo set', the largely urban professional taxpayer-funded culturally-senstive middle class who were too left for his economic policies.

However as PM he wooed this group on issues such as a republic, Asia and reconcilliation, as exemplified by the 'Artists for Labor' launch in 1993. This group returned the favour by forgetting about leftist economics and labour markets while substituting internationalism for economic nationalism (hence accepting free-trade).

Crossing the floor, don't forget 'incentivation' or 'incentivise'.

A cross between 'incentive' and 'motivation' it was coined by John Howard for the 1987 election campaign. However it was leaked, ridiculed in the media and not actually used.

The word grimly hung on during the 90s, and occasionally still appears in print and on radio. If anything its usage has increased slowly, not decreased.

Rgds, Peter  

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OK So who "Then to slow the economy down" pushed interest rates to 18% and higher in the US? It sure as hell weren't Paul LOL

Think more laterally. Pollies of all colours will get away with as much as we allow them. Labor (hate that spelling) is allowed no latitude in the Fed arena.

Think locally, act globally. Just vote for the best member standing in your electorate remembering of course that a healthy opposition is as critical as a good government.

Here endeth the first lesson! Geez I love pissy Fridays :D  

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I don't think Carr has helped much in recent years in dispelling Labor's poor economic record.

The generation that voted for Hawke & Keating are now older & more asset rich. The younger people coming through are used to a number of years of stability under the Liberals.

Neither generation have an incentive to rock the boat at the present time.

It will be interesting to see if Beazley sticks to his guns on tax cuts - and whether people will see this as Labor sticking up for the little guy or playing politics with our pocket books.

I reckon Beazley is not a good enough operator alone to make this into a Labor win. He simply doesn't have a shadow front bench that can support him sufficiently. Whereas the Liberals have several heavyweights who will happily beat Beazley about the head on delaying tax cuts to battlers.

On the other side I want to see what happens with the assistance for single parents now that it's clear that if they can't get childminding and have to stay home that they are likely to lose their benefits. This is certainly not 'family values' politics, but for some reasons Labor really isn't working this angle the way they should.

Beazley has fallen into the habit of tackling the wrong issues in the past. I'm getting the feeling at the moment that he's repeating his earlier strategy, to his party's detriment. Time will tell as always.

Cheers,

Aceyducey  

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nkibel said:
Lets see he abolished negative gearing then brought it back when the rental market nearly fell apart. Then the same great man then helped us again by bringing in Capital gains tax.Click to expand...
That's a bit unfair.

Recall that before his 1985 tax changes the top marginal income tax rate was 60c in the dollar, with the rate below that 46c. Also could you claim building depreciation on residential IPs before 1985? Or for that matter have taken advantage of dividend imputation?

Financial de-regulation improved access to finance which is critical for investors (recall that Fraser commissioned the Campbell Enquiry but did very little to implement it).

The Accord was successful in moderating wages when there could have been break-outs such as experienced in 1974 and 1982. Although bear in mind it was in the aftermath of Fraser's wage pause, which was successful but too late.

The age assets test helped target welfare better (though I think the asset limit is unfair on those who don't own a PPOR and should be relaxed). There were some improvements to family welfare, though there was also some increase in inequality and housing affordabilty dropped to new lows c1989. However until 1990 employment growth was strong and outperformed the Fraser era (the reason the unemployment rate did not drop further was a rise in the paticipation rate).

Foreign debt shot up but nationally the government was able to balance its budgets during the late 1980s. As PM Keating let the deficit blow out too much in the mid 90s (though it could be argued that this was Keynesian pump-priming).

I agree that the 1989-91 period was a disaster due to an inability to acknowledget the severity of the recession and internal bickering over the leadership. Rather than the extreme interest rates hikes, alternative measures to dampen non-productive borrowing could and should have been tried.

Regards, Peter  

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Acey, I must believe you when you say Carr isn't up to it. I can tell you that our Beattie Government should be "dead men walking" except that the opposition is even more inept.

At the last state election I deliberately lodged an unmarked ballot because my only thought was "a pox on both their houses!"

What relevence has State politics with Federal? NONE. except that the "born to rule " conservatives can take no more comfort from dominating their pathetic Labor opposition than the Labor Premiers can take from their domination of their pathetic oppositions.

Ya Gotta Love Politics!  
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