澳洲Australia property Home financing down, but Sydney prices re


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Home financing down, but Sydney prices recover

November 7, 2007 - 11:54AM

Worries about the global credit crunch and the effect of the August interest rate rise was responsible for a downturn in home loan approvals in September, economists say, while house prices continued to rise.

Australian finance commitments for owner-occupied housing fell 2.4 cent in September, seasonally adjusted, to 62,696, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

Total housing finance by value fell 2.7 per cent in September, seasonally adjusted, to $21.602 billion.

Economists had expected a flat result for the number of housing finance commitments for owner occupiers.

Macquarie Bank senior economist Brian Redican said the fall implied tighter credit conditions likely discouraged owner-occupiers and investors from entering the housing market.

"It looks like the housing market had a glance at the credit crunch and pulled back in September," he said.

"They might also have been tempered by the interest rate rise in August and speculation there was more to come."

But population growth and a higher birth rate have pushed Australian house prices higher.

The Australian house price index rose 3.5 per cent in the September quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said today.

That compares with an upwardly revised 3.7 per cent rise in the June quarter.

In the year to September, the house price index increased 10.6 per cent.

Economists had expected a rise of three per cent for the September quarter.

Mr Redican said the troubled Sydney housing market had turned around, while Melbourne was the stand-out performer in the quarter.

"We are seeing an increasingly broad-based growth in housing prices," he said.

"Melbourne is the stronger performer but the Sydney market seems to have turned around and the inner areas of Sydney are performing better."

Mr Redican said population growth was the big driver of house price rises.

"We have a record number of people coming from overseas and a strong birth rate," he said.

"They are spurring an increasing demand for housing."

AAP

This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/11/07/1194329279065.html  

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komstak,

I'm pretty sure that the boom we had after 1987 (not the last boom but the one before that, that began after the stock market crash of 1987) was actually DURING the highest interest rates we've seen in this country.

I distinctly remember my house price doubled in the space of less than 12 months as my interest rate moved from 14.5% > 18%.

Aimy  

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Aimjoy said: ↑
komstak,

I'm pretty sure that the boom we had after 1987 (not the last boom but the one before that, that began after the stock market crash of 1987) was actually DURING the highest interest rates we've seen in this country.

I distinctly remember my house price doubled in the space of less than 12 months as my interest rate moved from 14.5% > 18%.

AimyClick to expand...
Yes, but inflation was running at 9.4% in 86-87.  

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Prices doubled in 1987/1988 as people took money from the stock market and invested in real estate. There was a flood of money into housing and prices went through the roof. Interest rates were high, and people with bank loans were considered lucky with a 13.5% "ceiling". Loans were much more difficult to get and deposits required were significantly higher than is required now. When we built our first home in 1975 we needed a 30% deposit to get a savings bank loan at their "housing" rate - any smaller deposit required a trading Bank or Building Society loan where interest rates were a couple of percentage points higher.

This doubling was followed by the flat period in the early 1990s when prices barely moved for 4-5 years.
Marg  

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I wonder if we will get another flat period where house prices hardly move for 4-5 years?  

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aspect said: ↑
I wonder if we will get another flat period where house prices hardly move for 4-5 years?Click to expand...
If the economy slows, immigration levels drop, I would bet on it. As for the duration, anyone's guess.  

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buzzlightyear said: ↑
Yes, but inflation was running at 9.4% in 86-87.Click to expand...
Buzz,

Are you saying the RE boom of 87-88 was all to do with inflation?

Aimy  

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aspect said: ↑
I wonder if we will get another flat period where house prices hardly move for 4-5 years?Click to expand...
I think that is entirely possible. But I am also hopeful that we have had 4 years of this since 2003.

I also know that HOPE is not a financial strategy :D

Aimy  

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few things different this time around compared to the late 80s boom...

firstly the household debt was much lower and people were able to increase borrowing during the boom period..

secondly the high inflation worked in favour of housing because as inflation rises, it destructs value of money... hence better to borrow money (which is worth less in the subsequent years) to buy physical assets..

the sharemarket collapse aso diverted money from shares to property...

the median in syd from that peak in 89 was only broken many years later, i think in 95 or 96 ...

given the benefit of hindsight it may have been better to have cash (which paid few percent above inflation) during the late 80s and bought houses in the early 90s ..

this time around the boom has already happened, and prices are already at record levels, with household debt/servicing at national level close to maximum .. there isnt much capacity to borrow money, especially as the cost of money keeps rising .. if this does happen then we may have stagnant asset prices and rising inflation, hence destructing physical assets values over those years. People can only take on soo much debt, especially when the asset is negatively geared ...  

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I think DEBT will play a big part in properties future over the next few years.

I think with record low interest rates everyone borrowed as much as they could and them they bid up the price of properties. This effectively created the boom (increased demand and paying power).

Now that rates are increasing, peoples borrowing power is limited and they wont be able to pay the expected ever increasing price of a house.

I think it depends on how hard and fast the rates are raised. One or two 0.25% per year might be slow enough to be absorbed but faster and this could put downward pressure on prices.  

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