澳洲Australia property 2010 election and the real outcome though


在澳大利亚 I need some advice regarding a property purchase. Property - semi-detached house Bedrooms - 2 Condition - average needs internal reno to modernise Street - one of the best in suburb Location - excellent Close to schools - yes Transport - 50m The pool at of an IP needs to be resurfaced (or so the pool doctor says), the cost was estimated to be $10K ($10,000), after recoverying from my impresssion of a cat coughing up a fur ball, it just seems far too much. Its just a standard poo


Hi Everyone,

I will be brief with this post but want to seek others views/feedback.

We had election 14 days ago, and neither Liberal or Labor are voted in. Who is running the country? and who will run the country? Well I dont belive either will. The country will be run by three independants and someone like Bob Katter may not be such a bad person. He is somewhat exccentric, and has some interesting views.

Never the less, there will be lots of money spent on aggriculture and the farming areas. With this in mind it will drive jobs and money through these areas. When jobs come, we see people come to town, when people come to towns there is a demand for housing.

Simple election? - Dont think so, but what will the ramifications be? massive I feel. Might be good sign for regions of aggriculture.

Feedback/thoughts.

Nathan.  

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Country/regional's should do well if katter gets his way.

I read one of his demands is for 20% biofuel added to the national fuel
network in the first two years which has to be produced locally.  

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Nathan, I think governments (of all persuasions) are mostly irrelevant in planning for personal wealth creation. The fact that the country has been running for the last 2 weeks without anyone at the wheel is testament to that :)

Yes, granted, if you want to pick up on a bit of a boom that may occur in agricultural areas then that might be an opportunity. However, in my mind, I would not want to put a stake in the ground or base a strategy on the basis of Bob Katter or any one of the other independants holding any sort of sway............or Julia or Tony for that matter.;)

Over the course of many years of investing there will (for sure and certain) be Labor and Liberal governments and some will favour you at certain times and not at others.

Either way, I don't see the outcome affecting the RE cycles as they wax and wane. I'd rather look to the markets and the cycles themselves rather than who is the government of the day. Don't get me wrong, governments can exert influence - neg. gearing, FHOB, SD relief, vendor exit duty, ad valorem duty, etc etc - but I think this is largely tinkering at the edges, rather than driving the market.

Quality RE in desireable locations will always be in demand......I'm not so sure you can say that of the bush (with all due respect to the bushies).  

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Thanks for replys.

I dont suggest buying regionals based on this, just the side effects. I reckon that government doesnt really effect real estate. I am just interested in the infrastructure and growth these three regions will obtain and any offshoots over the next few years.  

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hi nathan
first a promise is just a promise until it become a fact or a deal
and all thats on the table is a promise at this stage
and if its back to the polls then those promises are out the window
promise anything to get the deal and then try just not to pay for it
the old rabbit in the hat trick  

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seeing as Bob Katter is running the country now it would make sense if he was the PM  

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I personally think it will have no effect unless something major is announced and followed up on.

I live at Epping NSW and we have been waiting for the last 20 years for a train line to Parramatta. Promised by both State and Federal members at elections and none will ever eventuate.

Personally when buying a property, I look at the overall area and what is offers.

What the effect of a government has is often trival - with exception to those who used their $14K taypayer money to purchase property $30-40K over valuations.  

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I mean more along the lines of a new mine getting the go ahead for example.

But more of the aggricultural sector. Sugar, Beef, Crops, etc... These all bring demand to an area as new workers can fill a town and leave a rental shortage.

Time will tell, but dont think its a bad thing.  

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I lean to Props thinking here. I believe we have all seen the influence on markets with governments programs and decisions, however in the majority of cases they are short term. So that may suit the speculators. However, having seem how many gov decisions end up botched ones, the speculation factor increases, which decision will have a short term positive outcome or not.
So you go back to the fundimentals of investing, and I do not recall any one or book recommending following gov dec/ programs etc. Perhaps very major gov infrastructure, but more when it is finished, rather than when it is promised.  

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It can be good or bad location to location. I have found in my work( private aviation contracted to the millitary) a change in government can bring big contracts to a halt. They have to pay for all there promises after all.
One example is the air 9000 phase 7 project that will be based in Nowra. 30 helicopters will be involved with a massive requirement for engineers pilots etc. No government change and positive views towards regionals means this will still go ahead. Also the new target defence contract (jp66)has the major bidders wanting Nowra as there base. This contract was stopped at the last government change.

So yeah government stability and commitment to regional areas will provide a flow on effect for Nowra property.
Cheers  

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Won't a lot depend on broader government policies?

In the UK the Labour party went to the last election with a policy of spending their way out of the downturn, whereas the Conservatives promised austerity measures. The differences between the parties might have been exaggerated, but the new government is looking at seriously cutting the public sector workforce which will increase unemployment. I'd expect that to put downward pressure on house prices.

The two parties have different principles. The Conservatives have capped housing benefit by limiting the amount that claimants can have paid to their landlords. Labour complained that this is preventing poorer or unemployed families living in the most expensive parts of London. Though I'd argue that social security is there to provide a safety net, not fund a lifestyle.

Similarly, policies on immigration, house building, business and so forth could have an effect on the property market.

I don't know enough about Australian politics, but there have been a few changes in the cabinet, and this might lead to changes in policy.  

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It is business as usual here, (regional Vic).

The calls I get for offers to buy some of my land blocks have increased, (frequency and $ offers upping), the calls to rent in the places where I manage my own IP's are increasing, (as well as PM's chasing more IP's)...people are always seeking well presented IP's.

Properties appear to be selling relatively well (on market turnaround times), and are fetching higher sales prices now. (The drought, generally speaking did give the State a kick in the guts).

The infrastructure plans were all well on the way prior to Fed Gov elections.

Bendigo is getting their new hospital, Mildura getting their updated/expanded emergency department, their solar plant development plans are ticking over, serious discussions for the new Casino on Murray underway, (they have financial developers/backers-just got to get community consensus), Mercure is about to open it's first build in a long time their new complex in Horsham, along with the new Art's Centre/function centre in Horsham finalising plans...

The Science and research Centres are more than a little excited and enthused about NBN being developed down the road.

The piping of water has been completed.[Jumping smiling/icon inserted here].

The rainfall, while in many areas is still below average rain for the 'year' is above for the last 2 months, and has seen catchments, lakes, rivers, creeks, tanks, water storages fill...bloody good stuff!:D

Things are ticking over nicely in the bush, the catchment cities (Bernard Salt calls them "Sponge Cities") always have strong demand for well presented rental properties, at premium rental prices. (That's my core business).

Anything that flows in via the just had elections, will be icing on the cake, and much appreciated.

I like to post updates to regional vic news/developments, but sadly cannot always keep up with it, here is just one site for any reg-vic interested peoples:

http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/about-us/news/rdv-update-june-2010

Steady, strong, 'business as usual' here, even with droughts and flooding rains.

Governments come and go.  

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A bit more comprehensive (development) info on regional Vic:

Developing Rural and Regional Victoria

Regional Development Victoria (RDV) is the Victorian Government’s lead agency in developing rural and regional Victoria.

Our focus is on investment attraction, job creation, exports, creating stronger economies, communities and infrastructure to create a strong and growing provincial Victoria. There are a number of programs to:

promote business and industry development
work with local government and communities
help new businesses establish themselves
pave the way for existing industries to grow and diversifyClick to expand...
Here:

http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/about-us/news/?a=172023#utm_source=rdv enewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=rdvwebsite&utm_campaign=sbv update 16 09 2010

why is that link doing that???







**********************************************************************  

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Nathan:
I mean more along the lines of a new mine getting the go ahead for example.

But more of the aggricultural sector. Sugar, Beef, Crops, etc... These all bring demand to an area as new workers can fill a town and leave a rental shortageClick to expand...
I probably tend to ignore the 'mining who-ha' a little, delegate it to background noise in the scheme of buying well, getting/creating the 'deal'...but/ it is a part of regional Vic and I should really update mining news and it's relationship in parts of Vic I am involved in investing at moment. I should also add, if it pulls out, (the mining) it's no biggy, life goes on, for some of the smaller areas, it's been a caffeine hit, nice, but not mainstay....but you would know that anyway.

Tidbits, some older, (and they maybe altering as time passes)-some newer:

From.. http://www.invest.vic.gov.au/180310MineralsandsontrackinregionalVictoria

Mineral sands on track in regional Victoria

18 March 2010


Victoria's mineral sands industry is set to become more efficient and environmentally-friendly, with $4 million of new rail infrastructure to be built in western Victoria that will save more than 20,000 heavy vehicle trips a year.


A new loading site for resources company Iluka’s Kulwin mine will be built in Hopetoun in the State’s north west, plus a rail siding and unloading facility at the Iluka Mineral Separation Plant in Hamilton in south west Victoria.

The grant will allow Iluka to use rail, a fuel and energy-efficient mode of transport, to carry mineral sands hundreds of kilometres from the Kulwin mine site near Ouyen to Hamilton for processing.

Victorian Public Transport Minister Martin Pakula said the project was part of the Government’s regional rail network investment.

“The Government is investing in rail transport to provide efficient access to ports and increase the proportion of export-related freight carried by Victoria’s rail networkClick to expand...
Vic Operations Ramping Up: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/13/2951975.htm?site=news


Miner ramps up Vic operations


Posted Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:22am AEST

Ouyen Mineral sands mining company Iluka is winding down its Western Australian operations in favour of Victoria.

The company has mines at Ouyen in the Mallee and Douglas in the Wimmera and also runs a processing plant at Hamilton.

General manager Steve Wickham told yesterday's Resources Victoria annual conference that the Victorian operations are starting to prove positive.

"We've moving away from our mature operations in Western Australia to our operations in both Victoria and South Australia and our investment that we have made in what we call Murray Basin Stage Two at Kulwin," he said.

Mr Wickham says the company's Western Australian operations are running dry.

"WA has been very successful for Iluka and other companies that have been part of Iluka for 30 years and the deposits which have been very good deposits," he said.

"[But] the grade has dropped off and basically we have mined those areas out so we made a decision to transform the company."Click to expand...
...better put some in new post, this is like cramming the hammock.  

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From one of local papers:


Mining project boost


29 Jan, 2010 07:23 AM

Stawell-based exploration company Navarre Discovery is one of twelve companies to share in funding to explore for new geothermal and mineral resources.
Navarre Discovery received $17,000 in the third round of the Brumby Labor Government's $2.5 million Rediscover Victoria Drilling Project. The latest round of funding saw companies share in a total of $70,000 for the exploration projects.

General Manager of Navarre Discovery, Geoff McDermott, said the company is very excited to have government backing.

``This certainly allows us to continue to explore and hopefully find new mineral programs out in this area,'' he said.

Mr McDermott said Western Victoria is underexplored and he is pleased the Victorian Government is following the lead of the South Australian Government by co-sponsoring drilling.

``It's hard to seek vacant ground in South Australia and the government here is trying to do the same thing.''

The grant will allow Navarre Discovery to search for copper, nickel and gold 30 kilometres west of Horsham.Click to expand...
...and this maybe of interest to someone, just for fun:

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...mX5drY&sig=AHIEtbQbF9VYXRilV_60I0-jZo5uQn739Q


Audit of industrial land in Provincial Victoria
FINAL REPORT


(PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF)


Trends and drivers of industrial activity in Provincial Victoria

This chapter discusses the trends and drivers contributing to industrial activity across provincial Victoria.

" Population and employment

Provincial Victoria has experienced a wide and varied set of population and economic changes over the past decade.

Generally, the population of provincial Victoria has been growing steadily over the last 10 years; however, the distribution of this growth shows distinct geographic divergence.

The average annual growth rate in provincial Victoria in the last 5 years (30 June 2001 to 30 June 2006) was 0.9%, which is only slightly less than metropolitan Melbourne’s 1.5% average annual growth rate during this time. In respect to population, processes of change have included:....read on--->Click to expand...
 

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Just putting up this link for the interest value re the realities in regional Australia:
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/politics/our-highly-taxed-and-deprived-country-folk-and-other-myths-20100914-15au8.html

(and coz it's a Ross Gittins piece and he probably writes more sense than any other economic journo in the country :D)  

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Thx for article Tuppence, I enjoy his, (Ross) thoughts/writing too...good article and explaining rather than face value stuff.

He 'gets it' about regional catchment cities! Or has scratched the surface some anyway, instead of just generalising.  

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Interesting article today by Residex as to why regional Australia is likely to boom due to the new government...
http://www.residex.com.au/newsletter/source2010_09bMC.html?content=wrap&from=news0910b  

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....i want a crystal ball like that......in this climate no one can predict what will happen in twelve months or two-four years......has the bloke has taken into consideration overseas influences or interest rates, world economy?

i take these releases with a grain of salt.........

cant see any breakout of prices happening or even close over the next few years in many areas of oz..there you go, my crystal ball does work..  

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Influence of a New Government on Real Estate

If you’re looking for get rich quick schemes then the casino at Darling Harbour, Crown Casino, Burswood or any of the others is your best bet!!!

If you’re looking for long term wealth then property is an excellent long term vehicle. It is longer term than any Government with a 3 year term can possible be.

There is no doubt that some regional areas will get a shot in the arm from the current political system. But the real winners will be those areas that had the fundamentals in place before these Politian’s grabbed power. These are areas that have long term futures because they have growing industry, which fuels employment, which fuels growth and housing + business demand.

Nothing has changed in regional areas before these elections & noting has changed after these elections. If the fundamentals are in place then regional centres prosper. Just take a look around you. How much influence has any government had on the growth & prosperity of North West of Western Australia? How about Moura, Bunbury or around the Bowen Basin? Has growth here been influenced by Politian’s or by hugely entrepreneurial business people with massive dreams?

Once again I urge you to look long term, look at the facts & look at the fundamentals. Is the area growing or in decline? Are there multiple industries there or is the community dependent on a single big player? What’s the local population doing, going up or coming down? This is where you’ll find success rather than looking at Canberra, to see what they are doing in parliament.

No doubt Government policies help. But the fundamentals need to be in place for long term prosperity.

Philip  

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