澳洲Australia property For those in the know ..... | Sydney


在澳大利亚 The pool at of an IP needs to be resurfaced (or so the pool doctor says), the cost was estimated to be $10K ($10,000), after recoverying from my impresssion of a cat coughing up a fur ball, it just seems far too much. Its just a standard poo I need some advice regarding a property purchase. Property - semi-detached house Bedrooms - 2 Condition - average needs internal reno to modernise Street - one of the best in suburb Location - excellent Close to schools - yes Transport - 50m


Could someone analyse why the sentiments suddenly turn so much against property, I've never seen anything like it before, feel like a tsunami. Any bright spots in the country ? Is this a pre-xmas thing stock moves slowly or just particular bad now. Interest rate going up doesn't explain it all.  

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where has it turned so suddenly? aside from melbourne i thought it had been a bear market for yeaars  

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We still have many hundreds of thousand migrants every year, people still need to live somewhere, investors need to invest.  

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on the move said: ↑
Could someone analyse why the sentiments suddenly turn so much against property....Click to expand...
I think it is true that whatever you focus your mind on (or allow yourself to hear and meditate on) seems to be magnified. It works the same way for me in reverse. If I am always spending my time in hot spots buying property and fending off fierce competition, then I can come to the view that property is going gangbusters.

Both views are right, depending where you look.  

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Propertunity said: ↑
I think it is true that whatever you focus your mind on (or allow yourself to hear and meditate on) seems to be magnified.Click to expand...
Very interesting (insightful?) point. I am pretty much being all-consumed by property at the moment, it's all I seem to talk or think about as I move towards my first IP, however recent market sentiments and commentary has really spooked me. :(

The closer I get to jumping in the deep end the more stories about a potential bubble/rising rates rattle me.

I can't believe it's all in my head though. After all on the move has been a member here for five years and has first-time concerns in his investment journey. on the move said: ↑
*snip*I've never seen anything like it before, feel like a tsunami.Click to expand...
 

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start-up said: ↑
...however recent market sentiments and commentary has really spooked me. :(
The closer I get to jumping in the deep end the more stories about a potential bubble/rising rates rattle me.Click to expand...
Most novices get spooked by anything. What are you waiting for? Interest rates go up and down. Prices go up, plateau, go down a bit and go up again.

start-up said: ↑
After all on the move has been a member here for five years and has first-time concerns in his investment journey.Click to expand...
I don't know on the move personally. But being a long term member of a property forum is nothing to go by. There are many in here will hunderes of posts and no property. :rolleyes:

My first property cost $32,500 @ 13.5% IRs in 1982. That one's probably worth 10x that much now.
My next one cost $70,000 ($20K land + $50K build) when IRs were 18-19%. That one's probably worth 7x that much now.
Then I bought one for $117K that is worth 3x that much now. I think IRs were 8+% at that time.
.....and after that I bought a few more.  

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Don't be spooked. If you think now is a good time to buy then buy :)

(Personally, if we were in a position to purchase right now, I'd be looking to pick up some early bargains.)  

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start-up said: ↑
After all on the move has been a member here for five years and has first-time concerns in his investment journey.Click to expand...
Start-up, there are 2 sure ways to lose money in property : 1. rush in 2. buy something you don't know, and I committed both sins, otherwise my property portfolio has been doing okay.  

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So Alan you don't think we are at the edge of a bubble and now is no worse than any of the bottom of the property cycles we've gone through in the past ? I've been living in Melbourne and I never experienced as much bad press as up here in Brissy.  

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On the news tonight there was a big push to slow the market, comments that some areas are likely to see a drop of 15 - 20%. Now this is likely to be true, but so is a rise of 15 - 10% in some areas.

These reports come out from time to time and often appear to have no science behind why, just that the market has been over valued for the last ten years and it has to stop sometime.

They even used the lack of new construction to support their argument which according to basic supply and demand should in fact maintain upward pressure on prices.

If you say something often enough it will eventually happen and then you can claim to be the guru who predicted the future.

Sorry, my crystal ball is broken so I'll just have to keep with the theory that it is better to be in the game than sit on the bench.

Regards

Andrew  

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on the move said: ↑
So Alan you don't think we are at the edge of a bubble and nowClick to expand...
No, I don't. I don't subscribe to the bubble theory. Not at this point anyway.

on the move said: ↑
is no worse than any of the bottom of the property cycles we've gone through in the past ?Click to expand...
Brisbane is probably at the bottom of its cycle whereas Sydney has come of the bottom of its cycle in 2008 and has shown growth in 2009 & 2010 and is still growing albeit at a slightly slower pace than before. However, I'm sure that there may well be some Sydney suburbs that are falling ?? (not sure, as I don't go there :))

on the move said: ↑
I've been living in Melbourne and I never experienced as much bad press as up here in Brissy.Click to expand...
Brissy press is bound to be a bit glum. It was the same in Sydney from 2003 - 2008. But Brissy will come back (it always does), just don't know when. Melbourne probably overshot a bit.

All of this is just typical cyclical behaviour IMO and different cities are in different parts of their own cycle.  

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on the move said: ↑
Could someone analyse why the sentiments suddenly turn so much against property, I've never seen anything like it before, feel like a tsunami. Any bright spots in the country ? Is this a pre-xmas thing stock moves slowly or just particular bad now. Interest rate going up doesn't explain it all.Click to expand...
In a word;

Penguins.

My favourite word for the masses.

To understand what I'm saying; go watch the Penguin parade at dusk down at Phillip Island.

It'll all become clear.

It's a classic.

I love it when sentiment is bad; time to go shopping.

Don't be a Penguin.  

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Bargain Hunter said: ↑
On the news tonight there was a big push to slow the market, comments that some areas are likely to see a drop of 15 - 20%. Now this is likely to be true, but so is a rise of 15 - 10% in some areas.

These reports vome out from time to time and oftern appear to have no science behind why, just that the market has been over valued for the last ten years and it has to stop sometime.

They even used the lack of new construction to support their argument which according to basic supply and demand should in fact maintain upward pressure on prices.

AndrewClick to expand...
you're correct those reports have little science - just as little as the 'property to rise x%, rents to rise x%' reports.

matusik had a good column in yesterdays bne cm, not online yet. bne/seq 's population growth is slowing and the attached 'migration' businesses, including RE is going to do it tough for some time. i don't think qld is going to recover for some time - just sit still for a number of years - which of course is a fall in real terms. i don't know about the rest of oz but i would be very cheeky if i was buying in brisbane atm.

disclaimer - i bought my crystal ball online from an indian retailer, it could be wrong.  

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BayView said: ↑
In a word;

Penguins.

My favourite word for the masses.

To understand what I'm saying; go watch the Penguin parade at dusk down at Phillip Island.

It'll all become clear.

It's a classic.

I love it when sentiment is bad; time to go shopping.

Don't be a Penguin.Click to expand...
^^^
Don't think I could've said it better myself!  

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when the birds fly south for winter I m not sure I would like to be flying north??  

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Ausprop said: ↑
where has it turned so suddenly? aside from melbourne i thought it had been a bear market for yeaarsClick to expand...
think that is overstating it a bit Ausprop, Perth has been down for a number of years but dozens of markets have boomed since then such as Darwin (more than tripled last 7 years) melbourne 2007, 2009 and first half 2010, syd 2009 and first half 2010, central coast nsw, parts of adelaide, gladstone and many many more including regional spots in your own WA.

perth investors who accessed their equity ion 2007 and invested wisely in other states at that time would be miles infront.

personally i think it is a good time to buy in brissy now as long as u can wait a little bit of time for the upfront movement, also think perth will start upward movement in 2011  

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Everything probably costs 10 x what it was worth in 1982. And wages were probably 10 x less than.

Propertunity said: ↑
My first property cost $32,500 @ 13.5% IRs in 1982. That one's probably worth 10x that much now.Click to expand...
 

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