澳洲Australia property Steve Keen's apartment +25% sinc


在澳大利亚 The pool at of an IP needs to be resurfaced (or so the pool doctor says), the cost was estimated to be $10K ($10,000), after recoverying from my impresssion of a cat coughing up a fur ball, it just seems far too much. Its just a standard poo I need some advice regarding a property purchase. Property - semi-detached house Bedrooms - 2 Condition - average needs internal reno to modernise Street - one of the best in suburb Location - excellent Close to schools - yes Transport - 50m


I thought the following article would be interesting to read. I couldn't resist the title sorry :) General area estimate by McGrath and taking him at his estimate and making a big assumption that Keen = Chicken Little!

I also remember an instance several years ago, when one loud academic promoter of the “Chicken Little” theory had our company sell their apartment because they believed and publicised the market was 40% over heated. So we sold it and we got them a good price. They were relieved as they had avoided the ‘Armageddon’ mania perpetuated by these so called experts in the news. Since then property values in that particular area have increased by 25%.Click to expand...
source:
http://www.johnmcgrathblog.com.au/blog/2/68/  

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ouch... :)  

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Andrew_A said: ↑
I thought the following article would be interesting to read. I couldn't resist the title sorry :) General area estimate by McGrath and taking him at his estimate and making a big assumption that Keen = Chicken Little!

source:
http://www.johnmcgrathblog.com.au/blog/2/68/Click to expand...

Wow, Mr McGrath has just lost a stack of credibility with me because he also said this in that article: "In effect, I think there is a 95% chance we will see double digit growth in prime residential markets around Australia over the next 12-18 months".

Seriously Mr McGrath?

Residex Index, Sydney Houses
rolling 12 mth growth rate - 12 mths to 30/4/11

13.77%
16.00%
12.04%
9.58%
8.38%
8.34%
9.08%
6.41%
6.62%
6.23%
4.52%
2.57%

Hmmmm....and rates looking like going up 0.5% in the next 12 mths, not down.


I suppose he gets to define what the "prime residential market" is.
No doubt he is banking on there being more prime market sellers not needing to sell in the next 12 mths.

If he'd publicly define the prime market, then I'd be happy to take the other side of his 95% bet. Maybe Chicken Little could also challenge him to a walk up Mt Kosciusko.  

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Thats the opinion of a real estate agent with self interest. Meh!! Credibility = zero.

Anyway, i doubt units in Surry Hills have gone up 25% since the sale. I have a friend with a unit just off Crown St and she would absolutely dispute this.

Dont be too quick in critcising Mr Keen. Any gain there due to the GFC stimulus will mean nothing in the next 5 years.  

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Residex is showing over 10 for housing stock and just under 10 for strata stock both over the last 12 mths

ta
rolf  

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As reported in the latest API to 28 Feb 2011, 12-month median price growth for Surry Hills according to APM was 18.4% for apartments and 17.9% for houses.

Of course, these are only medians, but yeah, I'd have to agree that on these desperate figures it's absolute property carnage in the streets out this way!

Good to see ol' Steve Keen putting his money where his mouth is though. He's no doubt wagering heavily on a global upturn in alf-alfa futures or a bicycle clips boom any day real soon, and then he'll be just raking it in. ;)  

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StefanA said: ↑
Wow, Mr McGrath has just lost a stack of credibility with me because he also said this in that article: "In effect, I think there is a 95% chance we will see double digit growth in prime residential markets around Australia over the next 12-18 months".

Seriously Mr McGrath?

Residex Index, Sydney Houses
rolling 12 mth growth rate - 12 mths to 30/4/11

13.77%
16.00%
12.04%
9.58%
8.38%
8.34%
9.08%
6.41%
6.62%
6.23%
4.52%
2.57%

Hmmmm....and rates looking like going up 0.5% in the next 12 mths, not down.


I suppose he gets to define what the "prime residential market" is.
No doubt he is banking on there being more prime market sellers not needing to sell in the next 12 mths.

If he'd publicly define the prime market, then I'd be happy to take the other side of his 95% bet. Maybe Chicken Little could also challenge him to a walk up Mt Kosciusko.Click to expand...
Assuming he has the fine circular reasoning skills of most agents, I suspect that the "prime residential market" will prove to be any market that retrospectively can be shown to meet his prediction.  

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evand said: ↑
Thats the opinion of a real estate agent with self interest. Meh!! Credibility = zero.

Anyway, i doubt units in Surry Hills have gone up 25% since the sale. I have a friend with a unit just off Crown St and she would absolutely dispute this.

Dont be too quick in critcising Mr Keen. Any gain there due to the GFC stimulus will mean nothing in the next 5 years.Click to expand...
i would criticize keen in this instance as he sold when all the pointers showed there would be growth in the next 12-24 months which there was. he could have taken that growth and sold now if he was 1/10th as smart as he thinks he is

as for mcgrath i think putting out that article about keen when he was their client is way out of order, if he was not their client then fair game but that stinks.  

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I don't know about prime RE markets....but I would agree that in 2013 we could see 10% growth after little growth in 2011 and subdued growth in 2012.

I am of the opinion there will be no further rate rises this year....as a matter of fact I am factoring in a 25 bp rate cut in Oct.!


StefanA said: ↑
Wow, Mr McGrath has just lost a stack of credibility with me because he also said this in that article: "In effect, I think there is a 95% chance we will see double digit growth in prime residential markets around Australia over the next 12-18 months".

Seriously Mr McGrath?

Residex Index, Sydney Houses
rolling 12 mth growth rate - 12 mths to 30/4/11

13.77%
16.00%
12.04%
9.58%
8.38%
8.34%
9.08%
6.41%
6.62%
6.23%
4.52%
2.57%

Hmmmm....and rates looking like going up 0.5% in the next 12 mths, not down.


I suppose he gets to define what the "prime residential market" is.
No doubt he is banking on there being more prime market sellers not needing to sell in the next 12 mths.

If he'd publicly define the prime market, then I'd be happy to take the other side of his 95% bet. Maybe Chicken Little could also challenge him to a walk up Mt Kosciusko.Click to expand...
 

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evand said: ↑
Anyway, i doubt units in Surry Hills have gone up 25% since the sale. I have a friend with a unit just off Crown St and she would absolutely dispute this.Click to expand...
....sounds like you are in good company then with the non-believers.:rolleyes:

I am given to understand that Prof keen sold his unit in Surry Hills in Oct 2008. Here's a chart from Qtr 4 of 2008 to Qtr 1 of 2011 (so it does not have any dodgy REA data - just the stuff from land titles, which you prefer).

I think you can see from the trend line that I drew in red, that the median price for Surry Hill units has indeed increased. So maybe you can console your friend, who lives just off Crown St, that she's doing OK on the property front.;)

In fact the median in Qtr 4 of 2008 was $420K and in Qtr 1 of 2011 it was $551K which represents an increase of......+31%.  

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Either way, I think it's extremely bad form and unprofessional by John Mcgrath to raise and critise a transaction made by his company in a personal blog.
Maybe he should also mention that the only reason prices didn't correct in 2008/2009 was the large government stimulus packages implemented (FHOG increase, etc). I'd love this guy to explain that it property was going so good, then why it needed billions in government funds to prop it up. (what happened to the free market, and the apparent market undersupply maintaining prices up.
There will be a correction in the market, it's just been delayed a few years to 2011/2012 due to the government spending.  

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For votes Bluestorm, to appear to be doing something and to stimulate the economy so they could say how well they are running the country. To increase tax receieved from increased employment and stamp duty and GST to help cover their other failed schemes.  

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ooh and they listened to Steven Keen  

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I Think you're wrong here. No one could have predicted the jump in growth caused by the GFC stimulus, low rates, FHGB, stamp duty discounts etc. Its easy to see it now, but not before the fact.

Bigtone said: ↑
i would criticize keen in this instance as he sold when all the pointers showed there would be growth in the next 12-24 months which there was. he could have taken that growth and sold now if he was 1/10th as smart as he thinks he is

as for mcgrath i think putting out that article about keen when he was their client is way out of order, if he was not their client then fair game but that stinks.Click to expand...
 

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Maybe he re-invested his money into Gold and Silver and made a killing?

In anycase, SK is such a persona non-grata when it comes to investing, I have no strong feeling either way against him.

As for his predictions, he also for memory said that the RBA cash rate would get to 0%.  

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Again, we are comparing your endless graphs and dodgy statistics to whats happening on the ground. 31%?? yeah right.


Propertunity said: ↑
....sounds like you are in good company then with the non-believers.:rolleyes:

I am given to understand that Prof keen sold his unit in Surry Hills in Oct 2008. Here's a chart from Qtr 4 of 2008 to Qtr 1 of 2011 (so it does not have any dodgy REA data - just the stuff from land titles, which you prefer).

I think you can see from the trend line that I drew in red, that the median price for Surry Hill units has indeed increased. So maybe you can console your friend, who lives just off Crown St, that she's doing OK on the property front.;)

In fact the median in Qtr 4 of 2008 was $420K and in Qtr 1 of 2011 it was $551K which represents an increase of......+31%.Click to expand...
 

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evand said: ↑
Again, we are comparing your endless graphs and dodgy statistics to whats happening on the ground. 31%?? yeah right.Click to expand...
I believe that is also the knock on others here who are 'close' to the ground and contradict or at least provide their examples of contrarian results compared to the falling price indicators.

Two sides of the same coin!  

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Sorry?

Government stimulus measures to help first home buyers during the GFC explain the median fast approaching a million for a house in Surry Hills?

Those poor Surry Hills FHB souls!  

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The first home buyers grant and boost was only one part of the stimulus. It was a multi faceted stimulus that affected the whole property market, starting with FHB's. (as it was designed to do)

Belbo said: ↑
Sorry?

Government stimulus measures to help first home buyers during the GFC explain the median fast approaching a million for a house in Surry Hills?

Those poor Surry Hills FHB souls!Click to expand...
 

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I also remember an instance several years ago, when one loud academic promoter of the “Chicken Little” theory had our company sell their apartment because they believed and publicised the market was 40% over heated. So we sold itClick to expand...
So much for professional confidentially. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Would you do business with this man?  

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