澳洲Australia property interest rate rise today? | Sydney


在澳大利亚 The pool at of an IP needs to be resurfaced (or so the pool doctor says), the cost was estimated to be $10K ($10,000), after recoverying from my impresssion of a cat coughing up a fur ball, it just seems far too much. Its just a standard poo I need some advice regarding a property purchase. Property - semi-detached house Bedrooms - 2 Condition - average needs internal reno to modernise Street - one of the best in suburb Location - excellent Close to schools - yes Transport - 50m


...almost nil chance of a rise today, i reckon, and will not rise for the remainder of this year either. If it does, it will be only 0.25% max in nov/december.

For rates to rise, i think the RBA needs to see the wealth created ( or rather pulled out) by the mining boom spread to the broader economy. This has not happened yet, and given the long lead times for mining, i dont expect any rate rises this year.  

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id put a carton on no rise today

ta'rolf  

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Rolf Latham said: ↑
id put a carton on no rise today

ta'rolfClick to expand...
fair odds on that bet would be one stubby to a carton.  

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HSBC apparently think there'll be 100bp between now and Dec 2012.

but most bets are on nil until at least end of year now. evrything is soft and the trickle-down of the extra bank rate rises is now really being felt.  

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The end of fin year tax returns may spike retail for a little while, but I'll bet the next quarter figures will show what is really going on - bad.

Look for a rate cut before 2012.  

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Apparently employment figures are up. What effect will that have?  

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Graingrower said: ↑
Apparently employment figures are up. What effect will that have?Click to expand...
Employment figures would no doubt include the creation of new jobs - even casual ones, which can last a very short time. The Gubbmint can spin it however they like, but...

An anecdotal figure for you;

My current field of enterprise is the workshop. I have close exposure to all the different related businesses associated with the industry, close exposure to the reps, the couriers, accounts people and so on....

I am getting daily phone calls from all the tyre companies at the moment - trying to get me to buy tyres and offering specials. When times are good, they never do this, or do it occasionally.

As an industry - everywhere is DOWN and has been all year.

We personally have had only 2 months in the last fin year which were better than the corresponding months from the year before - that's 10 months out of 12 which are worse. Our turnover for the last fin year is 10% down on the year before.

Our last fin year June and July were the best 2 months (tax returns, heading north for the winter, slippery roads etc are the catalyst for more car maintenance), and this year our June figures are down by 20.8%.  

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Hi

I can agree with Bayview there.

The Gold coast especially has been tough for many businesses that rely on discretionary expenditure, many that I know have been putting in good $ after bad over the last 12 mths with a view that it will get better.................

ta
rolf  

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Rolf Latham said: ↑
Hi

I can agree with Bayview there.

The Gold coast especially has been tough for many businesses that rely on discretionary expenditure, many that I know have been putting in good $ after bad over the last 12 mths with a view that it will get better.................

ta
rolfClick to expand...
Rolf
I feel that things will get worse before they get better because there is no more stimulus, the world is still in financial crisis and it won't be coming out of it anytime soon, our $ is high so tourists are not coming here for holidays and we locals are holidaying overseas as well.
The situation at work (in Sydney) isn't the best either.
We're still ok but it isn't boom times and the retrenchment/restructuring idea could come back into the boardrooms again.....  

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BV said: ↑
Rolf
I feel that things will get worse before they get better because there is no more stimulus, the world is still in financial crisis and it won't be coming out of it anytime soon, our $ is high so tourists are not coming here for holidays and we locals are holidaying overseas as well.
The situation at work (in Sydney) isn't the best either.
We're still ok but it isn't boom times and the retrenchment/restructuring idea could come back into the boardrooms again.....Click to expand...
I was talking about this earlier.

Currently business would rather underemploy and hold good staff than fire everyone and be caught behind the wagon trying to rehire.

It can only last so long though, things either have to pick up or they will have to start retrenching. I know one company that has systematically reduced staff to 1 employee under the redundancy package threshold so that should they fold,they can just close their doors.

Import/export.....nasty.  

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I know one company that has systematically reduced staff to 1 employee under the redundancy package threshold so that should they fold,they can just close their doors.Click to expand...
To me this is a terrible indictment on the state of play for employers in the Country.

Where's the incentive to grow and employ more staff with this sort of thinking required to stay afloat??

The fools in the Gubbmint are all about "create more jobs, support Australia" and all this shoit, but then they turn around and have sex with the Unions and get a few more deals done to win some votes from the workers.

It's gotten to the point where instead of taking a punt and trying to improve and increase, we are contracting so that we don't have to fork out zillions to staff we can't afford to employ anymore.

In my book; "we are going broke, sorry but you have to leave, here's what we owe you for this week's wages and holidays, have a good life".

One of my staff left a coupla months ago (I was greatly relieved when he did because I was about to lay one of them off, and was dreading having to drop the axe).

I rang up the VACC to get a pay out figure for his hoiday pay owing. When he got his pay check, he asked if there was holiday loading included on the holidays.

According to the VACC, there is no loading, and I told him this. He had a whinge, it's unfair and so on.

I felt like cracking the bloke's skull with me wrench; why the hell should you get more money for not even being at work, and then expect more money on top of that again in loading, and then expect it when you are getting paid for holidays which you will never have?

I held my tongue, wished him well in the next venture and off he went.

It's a bloody joke.

Then, everyone whines about why Aussies are paying the highest prices on the planet for groceries and several other key items, then go and buy it all online OS and further shoit on our local markets.  

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BayView said: ↑
why the hell should you get more money for not even being at work, and then expect more money on top of that again in loading, and then expect it when you are getting paid for holidays which you will never have?.Click to expand...
Well, because you are an employer reselling this persons time and makin a killin :) .......................

Oh lordy, I so love the entitlement mentality.

We had a f/t position to fill about 2 mths ago, and I always do a pre phone interview of about the "best" dozen or so apps, because some folks present muhc better in real life.

This one girl could not shut up about how her current employer being a BIG bank was ripping her off and her entitlements , for as long as the phone chat lasted.

Needless to say she wasnt invited for a face to face

A lot of us need to think about our responseability, not just our entitlements, and thats one area where a lot of the union movement could gain some cred.

ta
rolf


ta
rolf  

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BayView said: ↑
To me this is a terrible indictment on the state of play for employers in the Country.

Where's the incentive to grow and employ more staff with this sort of thinking required to stay afloat??

The fools in the Gubbmint are all about "create more jobs, support Australia" and all this shoit, but then they turn around and have sex with the Unions and get a few more deals done to win some votes from the workers.

It's gotten to the point where instead of taking a punt and trying to improve and increase, we are contracting so that we don't have to fork out zillions to staff we can't afford to employ anymore.

In my book; "we are going broke, sorry but you have to leave, here's what we owe you for this week's wages and holidays, have a good life".

One of my staff left a coupla months ago (I was greatly relieved when he did because I was about to lay one of them off, and was dreading having to drop the axe).

I rang up the VACC to get a pay out figure for his hoiday pay owing. When he got his pay check, he asked if there was holiday loading included on the holidays.

According to the VACC, there is no loading, and I told him this. He had a whinge, it's unfair and so on.

I felt like cracking the bloke's skull with me wrench; why the hell should you get more money for not even being at work, and then expect more money on top of that again in loading, and then expect it when you are getting paid for holidays which you will never have?

I held my tongue, wished him well in the next venture and off he went.

It's a bloody joke.

Then, everyone whines about why Aussies are paying the highest prices on the planet for groceries and several other key items, then go and buy it all online OS and further shoit on our local markets.Click to expand...
scab with an extra few bb's to satisfies the program.  

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Rolf Latham said: ↑
Well, because you are an employer reselling this persons time and makin a killin :) .......................Click to expand...
When the business was advertised for sale, this guy was an employee already there.

I asked him a while ago, after I bought it; "why didn't you buy it yourself?"

He said: "I didn't have the money, and besides; I didn't want the responsbility anyway."  

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Graingrower said: ↑
Apparently employment figures are up. What effect will that have?Click to expand...
higher employment ( especially full time jobs), and their salaries, all put pressure on rates increasing.

Ultimately it all comes down to supply and demand. As socialist the government may be with items such as the carbon tax benefitting the poor whilst shafting the rich, australia is , and will always be, a market driven, capitalist, free economy to a large extent.

There are many factors that go into supply as well as demand- everything from migration numbers to aussie dollar strength to jobs/wages, consumer sentiment etc. A very complex issue with lots of combinations and relationships. Almost all lenders have complex models on this and use it to price their products accordingly in line with desired revenue targets.  

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I will be waiting to see if this new carbon tax which has been proposed will impact interest rates....  

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I dont think rates will rise for the remainder of the year now. The issues the RBA have said are all long term with no easy solutions.

Having said that, i dont think they will fall either- unless the US defaults on its credit rating ( possible but unlikely) or Eurpoe really tanks (more possible). Both of these factors take a huge toll on equities ( ASX) and will certainly lower hiring capacity of those firms.

How quickly things change- a few months back, we were all worried about rate rises, and now the momentus is shifting rapidly to hold, perhaps even decrease rates.

'...With coal exports taking much longer to recover from the Queensland floods, employment growth easing and Europe's sovereign debt crisis looking more significant than before, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) says it's happy to keep interest rates where they are...'

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/rba-caution-eases-threat-of-rates-rise-20110719-1hmem.html  

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...till they see the horrible numbers for July & August...and engineer an excuse for a cut around Oct!!

eeew said: ↑
I dont think rates will rise for the remainder of the year now. The issues the RBA have said are all long term with no easy solutions.

Having said that, i dont think they will fall either- unless the US defaults on its credit rating ( possible but unlikely) or Eurpoe really tanks (more possible). Both of these factors take a huge toll on equities ( ASX) and will certainly lower hiring capacity of those firms.

How quickly things change- a few months back, we were all worried about rate rises, and now the momentus is shifting rapidly to hold, perhaps even decrease rates.

'...With coal exports taking much longer to recover from the Queensland floods, employment growth easing and Europe's sovereign debt crisis looking more significant than before, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) says it's happy to keep interest rates where they are...'

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/rba-caution-eases-threat-of-rates-rise-20110719-1hmem.htmlClick to expand...
 

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Given that rates probably wont rise for the remainder of this yr, or even a small cut, is now a good time to buy or wait till there is more certainty where rates are heading? If waiting, the chances are that more demand will come onto market before this certainty is obtained. This will push up prices.

Opinions? Whats the downside of buying now? If rates do come down in the future ( say between oct-dec), as long as you are on variable loan, why not buy now vs wait?  

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It's a 'given' now?  

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