澳洲Australia property Rates to drop ? | Sydney


在澳大利亚 Appologies for all the threads, I dont have much time to get organised before the auction on Saturday. I had a question about the solicitor/conveyancing fees. I remember last time I had this done it cost over $1000. But that was soliciting t I have been looking at units in Sydneys upper North Shore. Only in Ku-Ring-gai so up to Wahroonga. The area seems to offer good fundamentals, is very popular and in general seems to be a lovely place. My favoured location to buy I think is G


Some economists (idiots) are spruiking that rates may come down before they next go up.

If so, that is good news.

But at the moment both NAB and WBC and others are showing fixed rates for 1 year, 2 year, and 3 year at 8.89% - no sign there that rates are expected to drop any time soon.


Tony.  

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actually nabs doing a special - 3 yr intro fixed p&i full doc @ 8.59 until friday and bankwest is doing a 3 yr at 8.49% full doc.

So you might see little specials like this crop up from time to time.

I wouldnt hold your breath for them to go down as banks will probably want to claw back the lost profits  

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In any case, fixed rates don't always work in predicting future rates. That why some people managed to fix for 5 years in the 6's around 2 years ago.
Alex  

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Rates to drop? Yeah right!

Amongst my lenders, there is huge inertia in an upwards direction.

Right now I’d be happy to get through a week without opening a letter from a bank informing me of another rate rise that has been applied to my account. I’m not whinging – could have fixed but didn’t. However I’m certainly not planning for rates to start dropping in the near future (regardless of what the RBA do).  

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Give it 6 or 12 months though and I reckon you will.  

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With March quarter's inflation figures coming in at 4.2%, I think we'd be lucky if Glenn Stevens doesn't fire off another round of interest rate rise in May!

The best we can hope for is for rates to remain steady for another 12 months, however, these inflation figures are a real worry...  

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Yep I'm sure we will see rate drops!!

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23585588-14327,00.html

I'm happy with my 10 year fixed rate!!!!  

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Dear All,

1. The RBA is reportedly "'happy'' with the 4 big banks' higher rate hikes, after its last interest rate increase in March 2008.

http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23439077-5016199,00.html

2. It is reportedly said to be relying on the commercial bank's higher rates hikes to contain the domestic spending and the local inflation rate.

3. For your further comments and discussion, please.

4. Thank you.



Cheers,
Kenneth KOH  

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Isn't it interesting how thisngs are changing day by day.

Earlier this month many were suggesting rates could have peaked (including the RBA)

Now the latest inflation figures suggest that the rate hikes haven't slowed inflation as much as the RBA had hoped and we may be in for more rate hikes.  

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I think even if the RBA does drop rates the banks will be very unlikely to pass on the full drop and what they do will be a long time coming.  

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Michael Yardney said: ↑
Isn't it interesting how thisngs are changing day by day.

Earlier this month many were suggesting rates could have peaked (including the RBA)

Now the latest inflation figures suggest that the rate hikes haven't slowed inflation as much as the RBA had hoped and we may be in for more rate hikes.Click to expand...
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Dear Michael,

1. Let us wait for the official outcome of the RBA Board Meeting in May 2008 and see how the RBA will actually respond to these inflation figures in due course.

2. Despite the recent high inflation figures reported, I personally believe that the RBA is still likely to continue leaving the interest rate steady after its May 2008 Board Meeting.

3. My personal belief at this point in time, is that the RBA is likely to continue to "rely" internally on the local banks' continued unilateral higher rate increase as well as the cumulative effects of the past interest rate increases, increasing housing stress/pains etc (as well as externally, on the continued slowing down of the global world economy and the US Recession) to curb down the domestic demand and the local inflation rate in Australia over the next few months, together with the anticipated monetary support of a tight Budget to be announced by Wayne Swan, the Australian Federal Treasurer in due course.

4. For your further comments and discussion, please.

5. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH  

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One development is that as bank interest rates (mortgage, business loans, etc) move independently of the RBA rates, the RBA rates themselves lose some significance. e.g. the RBA may decide to leave rates as is in May08, but if the banks raise their rates then the RBA decision becomes less relevant.
Alex  

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alexlee said: ↑
One development is that as bank interest rates (mortgage, business loans, etc) move independently of the RBA rates, the RBA rates themselves lose some significance. e.g. the RBA may decide to leave rates as is in May08, but if the banks raise their rates then the RBA decision becomes less relevant.
AlexClick to expand...
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Dear AlexLee,

1. Agreed.

2. Apparently, both ANZ and NAB have reportedly increased their housing loan mortgage rate hike again, ahead of the RBA's May 2008 Board meeting outcome on the interest rate, after the recent release of the high inflation data by ABS a few days ago.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/another-bank-ups-mortgage-rate/2008/04/25/1208743233803.html

3. Wayne Swan, the new Australian Federal Treasurer was reportedly also, heard emphasising the importance of having an "tight" budget for 2008, which is "non-inflationary" and which the Australian people may have to "tolerate" further "neccessary" pains in order for the existing high inflation rate in Australia to be lowered down and "properly managed".

4. For your further comments and discussion, please.

5. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH  

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I think the inflation numbers are okay.

Remember, there is always a time lag with all fiscal policy changes. Rates were hiked in Feb and March so recent CPI figures would have only included a month of the effect of the March hike. Best to focus on the second quarter CPI results for a clearer indication.

My gut feeling is that CPI will come back (after adjustment for petrol of course!). I can't see rates being cut this year at the moment.

It is so hard to call these things as sentiment can change quickly.

Either way, don't see much value in fixing rates.

See http://www.prosolution.com.au/IRAN.pdf for our opinion (albeit a few weeks old).

Cheers,

Stu  

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StuartW said: ↑
Remember, there is always a time lag with all fiscal policy changes. Rates were hiked in Feb and March so recent CPI figures would have only included a month of the effect of the March hike. Best to focus on the second quarter CPI results for a clearer indication.Click to expand...
I think you mean monetary policy?
Alex  

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Oops. Right you are Alex!  

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I wouldn't bet against another 25 basis point rise in the next 2-3 months. The RB are worried that inflation is still rising as has been shown by the figures released last week  

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evand said: ↑
I wouldn't bet against another 25 basis point rise in the next 2-3 months. The RB are worried that inflation is still rising as has been shown by the figures released last weekClick to expand...
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Dear Evand,

1. It was reported in The Australian Newspaper today, that

a. "THE Reserve Bank should tolerate inflation running above its 2-3 per cent comfort zone for the time being to support economic growth and jobs, according to former RBA governor Bernie Fraser."

b. "His warning was backed by respected economist and former Reserve Bank board member Bob Gregory, who said Australia risked a severe downturn if the 2-3 per cent inflation target were strictly adhered to when the China-led resources boom was forcing up food and fuel prices."

c. "We ought to be talking about how long it is acceptable to be outside the range when most of the inflation is imported," Professor Gregory said."

d. He also said the Rudd Government would "probably get away" with the tax cuts due to pour into voters' pockets on July1 without damage to the economy because demand was slowing.

e. "The two monetary policy heavyweights were responding to a call from former senior Reserve Bank officer Peter Jonson to suspend the 2-3 per cent inflation target to avoid a recession (in Australia)."

f. "Mr Jonson, a former monetary policy hardman and editor of the Henry Thornton website, now believes that soaring international food and oil prices have changed the ground rules."

g. " The comments ...confirm a debate is under way about whether monetary policy needs to be rethought to cope with the two-speed world economy in which the US and Europe face recession while China and India are feeding inflation."

h. "Mr Fraser and Professor Gregory emphasised that inflation targeting remained the best approach for an independent Reserve Bank, and did not support a shift to another mechanism. But they believe there should be flexibility in how the regime is applied to ensure the Reserve Bank does not over-cook the response to inflation."

i. "Interest rates have already been lifted to their highest level since 1996, yet there is no sign that inflation is under control. The latest consumer price index showed inflation at 4.2 per cent in the year to the March quarter, with prices jumping across the board."

j. "If you look at the RBA forecasts, and every sensible-person forecast, they say inflation is going to be outside the range for the next two to three years and, therefore, if you think the target is something you must be in, then you are better off widening it because the effect of moving back in would be too bad."

k. "Mr Fraser said the days when China offered a virtuous circle of strong world growth with low inflation had passed."

l. "There hadn't really been a need for serious trade-offs between those objectives (of curbing inflation and promoting economic growth and jobs) over the past 10 or 12 years," Mr Fraser told The Weekend Australian.'

m. "China had kept the world economy ticking over with all its commodity demands and it contributed to holding down prices by sending back all sorts of goods at what has until recently been at downward prices. It's certainly changing now as China is confronting inflation."

n. "We are very much back into the trade-off game and central bankers are going to have to start working hard again for their money," Mr Fraser said yesterday.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23600365-2702,00.html


2. Thus, both Mr Fraser and Professor Gregory believe that the RBA is offering no real solution to contain the existing high inflation rate in Australia, by increasing its interest rate continually, (as it is largely imported from overseas) and that in fact, the RBA is risking "stalling" the Australian Economy into a possible recession un-neccesarily, in the near future, if it were to keep increasing its interest rate to an un-acceptably high level.

3. Consequently, will Glenn Stevens and his RBA Board of Governors as well as Wayne Swan and his team of policy-makers in the Australian Federal Treasury have the wisdom and moral courage to pay heed to this public feedback and suggestion so as to "timely" review the existing montary policies for Australia and to re-cast them where neccesary?

4. For your further comments and discussion, please.

5. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH  

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