This is a revised (for June 2004) version of the original MS Excel spreadsheet I posted in this thread.
The attached spreasheet contains Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for each financial year since 1949/50.
Using CPI as a base it is possible to ascertain the real growth in the value of an asset. That is, the growth over and above what simply keeping pace with CPI would dictate.
btw. Those who open the spreadsheet will notice some figures already plugged in. A property worth $1350 (675 pounds) in 1958, which today has a value of $500,000.
The first figure is an actual sale price for a block of land in a particular area in 1958 (46 years ago).
The second is my estimate of what that same lot would be worth in 2004.
Not a bad little earner that one.
Helps keep "growth" in perpsective.
On another subject, just read an interesting email newsletter fro a John Mauldin of "frontlinethoughts.com.au"
Her's a part that I liked.
"While technical indicators cannot be rigorously programmed to yield an
automatic, always winning or low loss, don't-think-about-it trading system,
they do provide some useful insight. Volume, direction, momentum,
stochastics, and so on are reflective of market psychology. With a great
deal of time and effort, astute traders can use this data to determine what
Mark Finn calls the "gist" of the market.
The great traders become adept at using this data to help them determine
market psychology and thus market movement. They also employ excellent
money management and risk control skills. My contention is they have the
"feel." Just like some people can hit 95 mph fastballs, they can look at
amazing amounts of data and feel the market. They use solid money
management techniques to control the risk, and they make money for
themselves and their clients. Like Alex Rodriguez at the plate, they make
it look easy.
And thus many ordinary people think they can do it. And most fail.
For some reason, we take this failure personally. It seems so easy, we
should be able to do it. But after years of interviewing hundreds of
managers and looking at thousands of funds and mounds of data, I have come to believe it is a gift, just like hitting baseballs or golf balls."
It does seem true that "many ordinary people think they can do it".
And that most fail.
And yet, do we all think we could be professional golfers/ball players. No. Because we know we don't have "it". But, for some reason, we think we can have "it" after reading a few books, when it comes to share selection.
Anyway, just thought you might enjoy this.
Garry K said:
And yet, do we all think we could be professional golfers/ball players. No.Possibly because many of the success books explicitly say that if you can think it, you can do it!
Because we know we don't have "it". But, for some reason, we think we can have "it" after reading a few books, when it comes to share selection.Click to expand...