英文原文贴在下面，就不翻译了。
House prices will rise 25 per cent between now and the end of 2023, according to research that uses similar analysis to the Reserve Bank’s own scenario modelling.
Coolabah Capital Investments chief macro strategist Kieran Davies applied research developed by former RBA economists Peter Tulip and Trent Saunders to produce house price forecasts for the next few years.
The forecasts pencil in an increase of 8 per cent over 2021, with a range of 1 to 15 per cent for that year. They expect another 9 per cent increase in 2022, with a range of between 9 and 26 per cent. A final 8 per cent is predicted for 2023.
The total accumulative range of price growth over the next three years is between 14 and 36 per cent.
“This may seem a wide range, but is not surprising considering the volatility of house prices,” Mr Davies said.
Coolabah’s model is based on one of several of the RBA’s house price models. A central bank spokesman said the one used was derived from one in a 2019 discussion paper.
“This is simply one model and one source of information among many others that the bank refers to in the course of understanding housing market conditions,” the RBA spokesman said. “It should not be construed as representing the RBA’s forecasts.”
So far, prices have surged 5.8 per cent in three months. National house prices jumped 2.8 per cent in March – the fastest rate of growth in 32 years.
Mr Davies’ model incorporates feedback between housing construction, rents, vacancies and prices. It also incorporates risks around population and macroprudential regulation.
“The model’s predictions could be challenged by the uniqueness of the pandemic, where the working-age population has stalled for the first time in over a century given the closure of Australia’s border,” Mr Davies said.
“This is a massive change from the estimation period for the housing model, which spans from the 1980s to now.
“Another risk is that banks reduce lending standards as the housing market strengthens, which would trigger a regulatory response.
“However, while the Council of Financial Regulators is closely monitoring the housing market, the RBA has indicated that lending standards remain conservative, while credit spreads on riskier mortgages remain unchanged.”
With these risks and a similar approach to house price forecasts, Mr Davies expects the RBA will think the same but that it should not be concerned.
Risks remain
“Our expectation is that the RBA would anticipate much the same 25 per cent gain over the next few years given it is also likely to use the same model.
“Although the RBA has been clear in its forward guidance that policy will remain accommodative for several years until it meets its economic goals, there is some risk that monetary policy is tightened sooner than expected, which is a tension evident in recent market pricing of rate rises starting next year.
“The RBA should take comfort from rising house prices because higher asset prices are a key part of the transmission mechanism of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy.”
Coolabah’s forecasts also cover prices for newly built property. There they expect gains to be more front-loaded, with a forecast increase of about 17 per cent over the course of 2021, roughly 5 per cent over 2022, and about 2 per cent over 2023.
However, the outlook for rents is not optimistic.
Rents are expected to decline by about 1 per cent over 2021 and the same again in 2022 as the vacancy rate remains relatively high, peaking at 3.8 per cent given the weakness in the working-age population.
Rents are then expected to fall 0.5 per cent over 2023 before broadly stabilising over the following year.
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我希望它一直降，降到我固定利率后就开始升
想的美
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专家的话反着听就好了。。。。。
标题翻译不对，文中说了这是一个模型， 不能作为RBA 的预测
This is simply one model and one source of information among many others that the bank refers to in the course of understanding housing market conditions,” the RBA spokesman said. “It should not be construed as representing the RBA’s forecasts
2008年的金融危机推倒多少模型， 数据模型好像在房产行业不那么准确。
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这种预测，最多三个月有效，看看他们不久前是怎么预测未来房市的跌势就清楚了。
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如果租金不能跟上房价的上涨幅度，这种上涨是不可持续的
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在今天这个疯狂印钱的世道，还要跟大势反着干，看不懂是什么心态。要是真的觉得专家都是错的，现在就可以卖房了
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原文标题截图我贴上面了，你来翻译翻译怎么才是对的
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有种东西叫割韭菜，看看美股的SPAC就知道了。
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最近10年都没跟上过，原因是工资增长缓慢
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租金只是疫情期间掉了，之前一直同步甚至超过房价上涨幅度的。而且，租金跟工资增长幅度关系不大，跟供需关系大。只有国境开放，留学生和游客进入，才能真正保房价和租金，否则现在的房价不可持续，短期拉高是因为有后市期盼，而那个期盼就是疫情结束。
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不算很高，比较可靠的吧
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经济学家都是放屁，有本事你去年年底做这个模型预测房价涨啊，那是你牛，如果经济能用模型来预测那每个人都是千万富翁
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听听也就行了，我没见过哪个模型能预测房市的起伏动荡的，都是马后炮。
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官方预测，抱着吃瓜的心态看看就好
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官方预测，抱着吃瓜的心态看看就好
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宁可信其有不可信其无，跌了以后还有机会涨，如果涨了又没买可能永远都买不上了
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房价还要涨。
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2023年只有25%的话，潜台词就是RBA或者政府不会打压房价，因为涨幅在预期控制范围内
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如果2023年前疫情还不结束，那这两年的存款基本会投入到房地产。周边很多鬼佬以前到处旅游不存钱，这两年疫情一下子就能存个首付，反正也没处花，就买个房。
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