澳洲央行模型显示房价可跌二成

在澳大利亚澳洲新闻



澳洲储备银行之前的一个秘密模型显示去年的创纪录的房价上升部分到2024年底可能会被全部抹去。

如果人们对房市越来越悲观的话房价可从顶峰下跌20%，悲观可能是因为加息，也可能是因为房价下跌带来降价通道的形成。

这份为RBA8月经济委员会的政策会议准备的纪要之前保密，现在在自由信息法下被披露。纪要说：“这是我们之前假设的跌幅的两倍。”

央行的中心预测方案是悉尼和墨尔本在今年剩下的日子里每月房价下跌1.5%，到明年底全国房价从顶峰跌落11%。

文件显示6月季度的房市跌幅让RBA的经济学家吃惊，因为那个时候大多数家庭还没开始感到加息带来的财务负担。这让央行被迫重新考虑之前预测较少下跌的模型。

这凸显了央行对于加息如何影响房价的不确定。

全国有2404个区也就是近8成的区的独立屋和公寓的房价比三个月前降低了。

房价下跌会打击家庭财富，继而减少1.5%的家庭消费。在央行的预测中较糟的那个版本家庭消费还将进一步减少0.75%。该版本下住房投资预计也会进一步减少。

http://www.afr.com/policy/economy/secret-rba-modelling-shows-20pc-drop-in-house-prices-20221022-p5bs13

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RBA总是太乐观

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下降通道开始进行，中介现在在看好房子后的10分钟就把电话打过来了，看房抢房中介请喝咖啡的日子一去不返了

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跌的越猛反弹越快

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模型大多不靠谱。

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预测大部分都不准

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2成多不准确，之前预测的是四层


RBA predicts a potential 40 per cent drop in house prices

We’ve been riding on a wave that’s seen us boom for decades – but now it could all come crashing down, new research shows.


Jason Murphy
@jasemurphy
5 min read
August 31, 2020 -


http://www.google.com/amp/s/www ... 4d35a1d9e6668%3famp


Finance
Economy
Australian Economy
RBA predicts a potential 40 per cent drop in house prices
We’ve been riding on a wave that’s seen us boom for decades – but now it could all come crashing down, new research shows.


Jason Murphy
@jasemurphy
5 min read
August 31, 2020 - 12:58PM

High unemployment, low-interest rates and the rental market unpredictable - Is now the time to enter the Australian housing market?
New research shows what will happen if house prices fall. The news is bad. It turns out Australia is so puffed up on housing wealth that if house prices fall they drag down a huge section of our economy with them.

The Reserve Bank of Australia put out new research on Tuesday with some dire warnings. RBA investigated the effect of a 40 per cent fall in house prices – a fall they described as “extreme but plausible”. That would mean a $500,000 home falls to $300,000 and a $1 million home falls to $600,000.

They chose that figure because such a fall has happened in other countries during the global financial crisis (GFC). They also assume rising unemployment falls and a sharemarket crash.

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一点参考价值都没，预测房价要涨两成

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再过几天再预测一成，然后明年预测上涨。

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下周清盘要过80%中位价要到1.7-1.8M左右

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学区房影响大吗？
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