危险的RMB过高估值
RMB的继续升值更可能导致经济衰退，而不会刺激消费
DianaChoyleva
25-02-2014 11：08 a.m. ET
中国货币对美元在过去一周的急速贬值触发了关于yuan走向的新猜测。很多经济学家还期待北京今年会继续让yuan升值。但是他们会吃惊地发现，中国最终会注意到，yuan的进一步升值只会严重破坏经济并触发金融危机。
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China's Dangerous Overvaluation
Further yuan appreciation is much more likely to sink the economy than boost consumption.
By Diana Choyleva
Feb. 25, 2014 11:08 a.m. ET
A rapid slide in the value of China's currency against the dollar over the past week is sparking new speculation about the future for the yuan. Many economists still expect that Beijing will extend its years-long currency appreciation. But they are likely to be in for a shock, because China will eventually notice that further strengthening can only damage its economy and precipitate a financial crisis.
The case for a stronger yuan is that financial market liberalization will foster capital inflows as domestic interest rates rise. This will keep upward pressure on the yuan, in turn encouraging more domestic consumption among 1.4 billion people who find the value of their cash holdings increasing as the currency strengthens.
In an earlier era, when the yuan was undervalued, currency appreciation might indeed have facilitated rebalancing toward consumption. But the yuan is now arguably overvalued relative to a trade-weighted basket of the currencies of China's trading partners, and overall debt in the economy has built up so fast that further currency appreciation could be devastating.
Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and Beijing have pumped enormous quantities of cash into their respective economies to stave off economic crises. Monetary easing in the West fueled a tidal wave of speculative capital into emerging markets, against which China's capital controls have been only a partially effective sea wall.
Meanwhile, Beijing's own monetary stimulus efforts dramatically boosted investment in the economy, and pushed up China's labor costs in yuan terms. Given this situation, and the debt build-up that has accompanied the investment boom, the yuan now is almost certainly overvalued based on labor costs and the country's trade patterns. Most models that say otherwise rely on relative consumer prices across economies as a key yardstick. That offers an incomplete view because it reflects trends in the price of non-tradable goods as well as tradable goods. The real question is whether yuan prices for tradable goods are in line or out of line with foreign-currency prices at a given exchange rate.
A better measure would consider the labor cost per unit of output. Seen this way, it seems more likely that the yuan is now roughly 10%-15% too strong. Put another way, the combination of rapidly rising yuan-denominated wages and currency appreciation means that in dollar terms, China's labor costs have risen far ahead of Chinese productivity.
China's industrial profits in 2012 and 2013 posted their worst performance since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Since 2010, China has gained export market share at a much slower pace. During the past couple of years, Chinese firms have cut export prices in yuan despite the pick-up of global trade. If the yuan were undervalued, companies wouldn't have needed to reduce prices further.
Overvaluation has dramatic implications. Any further appreciation is much more likely to sink an economy that has racked up extraordinary debt in recent years than it is to boost consumer spending on imports. Exporting industries, and those industries that serve them, will struggle to earn enough to repay debts that will become relatively more onerous the higher the yuan trends.
One solution would be for the domestic price level to adjust to the current exchange rate. But this would imply significant deflation, including job reductions and wage cuts that would heighten consumer anxiety and sap household spending, risking political consequences that Beijing might fear.
There is another way. The needed rebalancing of growth from investment to consumption will be much easier if the currency is allowed to depreciate as capital flows are liberalized fully. A lower yuan would support income from exports, while households' diversification into foreign assets and higher domestic interest rates would boost household wealth and income.
This would certainly be more effective at stimulating domestic consumption than a stronger yuan, given that Chinese consumers buy little from abroad and therefore experience less perceived bump to their purchasing power from a strong currency. On the other hand, Chinese consumers keep the majority of their financial assets in bank deposits and borrow comparatively little.
Yuan appreciation before the global financial crisis was a gauge of policy makers' true will to reform. Yuan depreciation will tell us if Beijing has indeed made a groundbreaking commitment to liberalize its financial system.
Ms. Choyleva is head of macroeconomic research at Lombard Street Research in London.
http://online.wsj.com/news/artic ... pp_sections_opinion
评论
看到美联储要招回，天朝想关门打狗。不过不容易，大家正在过招，货币战争正玩得如火如荼。看谁笑到最后.....
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了解一下
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有这么个意思。
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油菜
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不知道这篇文章的独立性如何
类似的观点相信在业界早已存在
这文章看起来似有道理。其主要点在呼吁中国进一步放松/改革货币管理，让货币出入口更自由，认为这样yuan 就会下调到合理的价位。近日伦敦正在为其变成RMB兑汇国际中心大作准备，估计这文章与这个也不无关系
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人民币不是高估,而是低估.如果真是将人币波幅增大,人民币升值将更快.
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人民币是否高估,看看贸易顺差和外汇占款就知道了.人民币升值符合美国人的利益,同样也符合天朝的利益.今天的天朝对外依存度非常高,原油,粮食,甚至养牛的草都要从外国进口,人民币贬值,国内通胀将急升.
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中国的国际贸易一直还是顺差，RMB贬值对整体还是有利的
但现在事情的焦点不只在这点
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人民币贬值只会令到顺差更大,这是美国不想见到的.而且令到国内发行更多货币.过去天朝就是人为压着货币,靠投资和出口带动经济,现在这两条路好明显已经走不下去了.另外在美帝qe退出下,如果人民币贬值,将会引发国内热钱外逃,到时挡也挡不住.
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中国新领导正朝一个新方向探索：脱离以中美为主轴的策略。既然美国搞了排华的TPP，中国也已经大到不必事事看美脸色的地步
http://www..com.au/bbs/f ... &extra=page%3D3
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d
不懂
能细讲一下吗
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感谢这信息
我是外行，最近也是看不清澳洲房产走向，加上RMB的骤贬才对这问题产生兴趣
不过CNY与CNH的关系，能说明CNY/USD一直是人为压低的吗？
CNH可以永远比CNY 高一点，不管CNY/USD是被人为的压低还是挺高吧
文章中认为的衡量CNY/USD的更客观指标你认为如何？
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另一个问题是你能不能等到你要的价
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估计等不到
今年能到5块以下我就换
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按这个算法，天朝约10年时间就可以做世界老二了。
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我不太懂这些，不过我觉得两个现象挺有意思的：
1. 美国年年逼着人民币升值，好不容易这么多年磨磨唧唧来回拉锯地升了一点，这一下子又要掉回去，美国人估计心里更不好受啊。
2. 澳洲的麦当劳套餐十澳币左右，中国同样的套餐大概三十多元，汇率应该在1澳元：4人民币左右才对啊。。
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而且现在这架势各国都挡不住进口中国的东西，如果汇率到1美金：10人民币，看好各国失业率大幅上升。。。
一国的货币应该体现了该国的综合实力，毕竟货币的发行需要信用嘛。就凭十几亿人的勤劳程度和对财富，成功的渴望，在国家经济政策相对成熟后该国货币也不应该有过大幅度的波动。
个人来说我觉得人民币要比澳元靠得住
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这种一会唱空一会唱多人民币的文章不是一般的多，结果是搞乱人们的基本思路：要求人民币升值的是美国，但美国的思路是让人民币留在中国升值；中国的做法是，人民币升值可以，那就加速人民币国际化，边流出边升值，流出越多升值越多。其结果是人民币地位很快在国际贸易中上升，大有成为主要结算货币的趋势。这样一来，反手伤害到美元利益。博弈的先后手，其中的关键还是货币利益代表国家利益。大白话的说法就是如此，美元利益不在，美国也就差不多了。对于中国而言，产业链基本完整，升值是必然的趋势，关键是不能按照美国人的意愿来走。这就是所谓的中美利益冲突中不可调和的争执。
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请教 ，人民币过去十年滥发，对汇率有什么影响?
理论上讲，别的条件不变，多发一倍钞票，汇率应该降50%吧。
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