几年过去了，最近陆陆续续的，又闻到了黄金的味道。
1 有技术分析说黄金还没见底， 要走700－1000，完了就会大升10年到$25000；但也有说法是已见底。
2 见没见底现在都不好说，问题是你用这么低的澳币买以美元结算的黄金，真tm不值， 你打开澳元黄金和美元黄金的图表看看，这25%差距也太大了，A$1500, US$1200
2 ETF 在澳洲ASX 里有2个, 代号PMGOLD, GOLD; 发行商，前者为 Perth 造币厂，西澳政府担保；后者是悉尼一家私人公司。
3 Perth 造币厂可买金条，http://www.perthmint.com.au/
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感觉房价涨的比黄金快多了
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上面提到的，黄金还要跌到700－1000才会大升10年到$25000，信才贴到这。
http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... ld-25000-2015-06-04
The next great bull market: Gold $25,000
Suppose someone approached you in the year 2000, when the price of gold was around $250 an ounce and suggested that it would be worth almost eight times its current value within the next decade. I am sure most people would have thought that person to be less than credible making such an outrageous market call. Think about it. An asset being expected to multiply by eightfold within a decade? But as we all know now, gold went from $250 an ounce to just over $1,900 an ounce in just that amount of time.
What if I was to tell you that gold could make another such run over the next decade plus? Does it seem that outrageous now? Well, I think the math shows it can and will, with the price of gold futures surpassing $25,000, and more specifically for this column, the price on the Gold Bug Index HUI, +1.88% eclipsing 15,000. But let’s take a look back before we go forward.
It’s the middle of 2011. Gold was rising parabolically — some days even advancing by $50 per day — and heading over $1,900. Breaking the $2000 mark to most was a sure thing.
Think if someone walked up to you then and stated that the price of gold would be cut in half within four years. It would be an outrageous market call. In many ways, it would be no different than the person suggesting that gold would go from $250-$1900 within a little over a decade.
Well, in August 2011, I was that person. In fact, in my first gold column on Seeking Alpha, I warned investors:
"Since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave 'blow-off-top,' I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time."
At the time, everyone was so intoxicated with expectations of eclipsing the $2,000 mark that they failed to see the impending top. As we now know, gold topped in September of 2011, at just under $1,921, which was within $6 dollars of my target. We then began this multi-year correction within which we now find ourselves.
Many are probably wondering how I came up with such an accurate target for a top to a market that was rising parabolically. My answer is that the topping target was calculated using a 200-year Elliott Wave and Fibonacci mathematics study. To make this market call even more prescient, before we even topped, I identified the downside targets for gold within the correction I expected. I was looking for gold to drop from the 1900 region, down to a minimum of $1,400 an ounce, but, more likely, the $700-$1000 region.
For those who still question how well Elliott Wave can really provide long-term accurate predictions of market direction relative to all other methodologies, allow me to present you with the following prediction made by Ralph Nelson Elliott in August of 1941:
“[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercylce wave (V), comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. Supercycle (V) is not expected to culminate until about 2012.”
For those of you who do not understand this quote, Elliott was predicting the start of a 70-year bull market in the face of World War II raging around him. Quite an amazing prediction, no?
Let's come back to the year 2015. Now, someone stands before you and tells you that gold will be worth almost 10 times the current value within a decade. What would you think?
I stand before you today, almost feeling like Elliott did back in 1941. Yes, in 2015, I am seeing this correction finally completing (but at much lower levels) and starting a major bull market phase that can last the next 50 years.
So, while many that have read my analysis over the last three years have viewed me as being the staunchest of bears in the metals world, I will be switching sides and moving strongly into the bull camp, especially after we see the next and final decline which will likely take place over the next half a year.
In fact, if you look at the Gold Bugs Index HUI, +1.88% chart linked at the bottom of this column, you will see that our projections are calling for an almost tenfold increase in this index over the next decade or so, which will likely increase to a fifty-fold increase in the index over the next 20 or so years, and well beyond that in 50 years. Ultimately, we see the HUI over 15,000.
Yes, I know that this is quite a bold prediction. However, please remember that, for me, it is all a matter of mathematics and nothing more.
Now, let's put this market prediction within the context of Elliott's back in 1941. At that time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 100. Yes, you heard me right. 100. Seventy years later, we are at a multiple of more than 180 times that baseline. Our base line in the Gold Bugs Index will likely be in the 100-125 region when it finally bottoms. So, based upon this relative perspective, does it seem so unreasonable to foresee this index as high as 15,000 within 50 years?
When the market was setting up to top in 2011, I was going so far as to even be looking for the market to be cut in half. Now, in 2015, I am likely going to begin looking up — especially after we strike the lower lows I still expect. I wonder if I will be standing alone again. But with the upside truly no different than the impending major bull market that Elliott foresaw in 1941, I would hope that some of you will be joining me for this ride. Yes, my friends and fellow investors, we are now on the cusp of the next major bull market in the investing world.
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这个分析说到底了：
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如果金价筑底成功，会拿金股，09年拿过一圈，很多都从10几二十几cents涨到几刀，诱惑实在太大了。
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如果十年后涨两万五，好像现在不用太计较会不会到700吧，怎么着也得先三分仓呀，关键问题是十年后会不会两万五这个得看准，如果只是两千五甚至以下，得认真计较下入的点位。不懂瞎说的。
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‘如果金价筑底成功...’, 这个’如果‘， 你如何判断？
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暴涨暴跌之后，200天均线拉平了并且微微向上，对我来说就是筑底成功了。虽然08年到过700附近，实际符合这个条件的时候已经900多了不过900以上基本没下过200天均线，连续走了2年的时间，有4、5次机会可以入手。
现在搞不好就是三重顶，还是小心为上。
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那么高不好说，但2000或者5000应当会有，太多的纸币了。没啥原因就是信这个。
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什么东西泡沫过后都是这样的...........关注度不够..热度不够...价格很难起来了
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我觉得除非有大战乱，经济大动荡，否则黄金很难再有大动静。
我在黄金上赚过也赔过，现在真是觉得没兴趣了，很难再成为热点。
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想问一下交易人生，还有没有关注SLR? 目前的情况不要入手为好？
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新的趋势！
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黄金没有收入。还是股票比较好。
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我觉得这个股已经完蛋了，别碰了。
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现在什么都不好说，但要关注，一旦起来了，有个准备，slr曾经是我最喜欢的一直，曾经从30多cents介入，拿到过2刀多，可惜4刀多没赶上。未来如何，天知道。我对slr太熟悉，实际从09年到现在产量是增加的，但是赔钱的，金价在跌，成本我猜是上去了，09年的金矿平均成本在900左右/oz，这几年物价上涨，肯定上去，具体多少，我也不知道。slr resource增了，reserve 减了，产量增了，赔钱了，关键还是金价。其实炒这类东西也方便，分散投资，比如买10个，过3个月筛选一下，卖掉不太涨的，留住涨势好的，最后留在手里的都是好的。
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今天黄金跌好多
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OK 这是一个好的玩小金矿的策略。
如果不唐突的话，能不能请各位行家每人列出10 来个金矿，然后看看最后入围的候选是些什么？
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原来搞过RMS一炮
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关键是黄金完了，这些公司表现再好也没用。
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mark一下
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开玩笑，黄金都会完的? 低潮之后一定有高潮，自然界定律，时间决定一切。
有朝一日黄金起来的时候，表现好的公司会飞的更快。
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走着瞧好了。我曾经也很看好黄金，历史硬通货。但是现实教育了我。
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自己去找，过去搞过不止20个，ogc, slr , pru , bdr, azm , igo, rrl，也不用给你10个，自己去找。规避澳洲最大的金矿股，ncm，金价涨的时候，它都够呛。还是那句话，现在不是时候，时间到了，portfolio一年内翻番玩一样，无非100%还是200%的事情，就看是稳妥地做还是激进地做。
别现在浪费时间。
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五年内现实还会教育你一次。
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如果没有呢? 你上来道歉吗？
何况谁能精确预测5年后什么情况，就算你蒙对了，对你现在投资有指导意义吗？ 你来告诉大家，快去买黄金股，只要5年哦， 你就有可能大赚一笔，你觉得有人搭理你吗？
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黄金的上涨基于人们的恐惧。
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黄金的上涨基于人们的恐惧。
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急了哈哈。
09年到10年我就蒙对了，所以还想再蒙对一次，当然有意义了，不是动手，而是关注，不关注基本想蒙对都不行。09年以前也蒙对了。
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黄金的货币属性没变，虽然形式变了，尤其通胀厉害的时候，目前是减息周期，如果加息周期，形式就不一样了。比如去年，俄罗斯央行就增加了170多吨黄金贮备应付卢布的问题。当然最唱衰黄金的是美国人，那样他们可以随便印美元。黄金目前还是牢靠的货币储备。
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