澳洲FMG可以进吗

在澳大利亚



问一个各位的意见。

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我个人不太喜欢评价太过热火的股票，但是今天破例一次~

FMG  - FY09 公司运营巨额开销 US$977.6m， 然而它还拥有2006年时贷款需要在2009年偿还的债务US$129m。（因该在不久将来就有人催债了）
FMG 上半年 年出口的矿净利润以 每吨 = US$29.37， 而 下半年 因为中国的多加干扰竟然以每吨净利润US$12.77 出手给中国    
上半年已经遭受了资源商品暴跌的打击， 下半年又还给中国杀价到只剩下一堆残渣。
根据FMG报表 FY09 NPAT 应该是在 US$508.1m。 FMG 现在手上拥有的现金周转大概US$654.9m。 总债务US$2.11bn（没有算上利息）。矿产跌价，中国杀价。 已经很难想象它们公布的FY09 NPAT US$508.1m 能实现。
。。。。。
再说一下FMG现在 市盈率已经高达21.74倍。 总股本已经远远超10倍公司的本身的价值。

那FMG是不是就不行了？ 不是， FMG 现在需要大量的资金来筹备发展。 配股？银行贷款？出售资产？ 我也不知道， 但是只要有足够的钱才能看到FMG往上爬。

这只是我对公司自己公布的通告做出的结算。

No responsibility taken for any losses in association with this posting.

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今天新闻不是说中国给五十亿美元吗

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fmg   12月份是不是有内部股要出来？  :) 不过，到12月份，时间还早着呢。

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先说明我不是FMG holder. 旁观者清。
中国“可能”“借”给FMG 可能高达US$7.2Bn 用于发展Western Australia Mill, 这可能让FMG的矿产量加倍， 这个数字很惊人， 但是中国的条件更是苛刻，需要FMG提供35%Discount iron ore price. 比BHP，RIO 出的33%还便宜 2%， 还宣称这将是新的Iron Ore Benchmark.
这让FMG公然向BHP和RIO宣战。

再说一下中国借FMG的巨额US$7.2Bn， 澳洲没有Regulation 上市公司向别的公司贷款， 但是有Regulation限制上市公司出售国有的Equity。
US$7.2Bn 这个巨额实际上已经超出FMG能偿还的债务，说白了，就是中国想收购FMG， 但是知道不可能成功，所以用贷款来限制FMG往后的发展， 如果FMG不能偿还， 中国将有权利Liquidate FMG 资产， 简单点来说就是走后门收购FMG。

这样是不是好事？ 还是一样， 我也不清楚， 这要看政府怎样来对待FMG跟中国这次的Deal 了。 有可能澳洲会像RIO跟中国的Deal 一样多家干扰。

我说的只是个人意见。

No responsibility taken for any losses in association with this posting.

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就像当初日本发展的时候造就了淡水河，这次可能是中国想要打造一个淡水河第二。

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中国从FMG买到什么？
Tags: 中国, FMG
Fortesc-who? With all eyes on the big three iron ore producers, few expected anyone outside the oligopoly to break the deadlock with China's mills. And yet Fortescue Metals of Perth, ranked 59 places below Rio Tinto on the list of the world's biggest materials companies by market capitalisation, has reached what it calls “a groundbreaking agreement” with Baosteel, the biggest steelmaker. Fortescue's output in the six months to December will be sold at US$55.50 a tonne, about a 3 per cent discount on the price Rio, the world's third-biggest producer by market cap, set in May with non-Chinese mills.

      Fortescue(FMG)是谁？当人们的目光都集中在三大铁矿石生产商身上之际，很少有人会想到，在这个寡头集团以外，有任何供应商能够打破与中国钢厂之间的僵局。可总部位于珀斯、在全球最大矿商（按市值计算）排名榜上的名次比力拓(Rio Tinto)低了59位的Fortescue Metals，却偏偏与中国最大钢企宝钢(Baosteel)达成了它所称的“突破性的协议”。在截至今年12月的六个月里，Fortescue的产量将按每吨55.50美元的价格成交，相比力拓在5月份与中国以外钢厂达成的协议价格，有3%的折扣。按市值计算，力拓是全世界第三大矿商。

Whether the agreement will be copied by anyone else is beside the point: with Chinese spot prices at $110, there is every incentive for BHP et al to ignore it. More important is what it means for Fortescue, a six-year old company that has been shipping ore for a little over a year. Since Rio slipped Chinalco's grasp to merge its Australian iron ore assets with BHP Billiton, China has needed an effective counterweight to the big two in the Pilbara. With this deal, along with the promise of up to $6bn from Chinese banks in general-purpose financing, it is obvious that it has found it.

      此项协议是否会被其它企业效仿，并不是关系很大：在中国铁矿石现货市场价格达到每吨110美元的情况下，必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等矿业巨擘有充分的动机对这种协议视而不见。更重要的是，它对Fortescue意味着什么？这家公司成立6年，发运矿石的历史则刚过一年。自力拓逃离了中铝(Chinalco)的手心，转而与必和必拓合并澳大利亚铁矿资产以来，中国需要在澳洲皮尔巴拉(Pilbara)地区有一个能够有效抗衡两巨擘的伙伴。从这宗交易以及中资银行将提供至多60亿美元通用融资的承诺来看，中国明显找到了这样的伙伴。

Fortescue, led by chief executive and 31-per cent shareholder Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest, had always been an energetic self-promoter. Yet while the group's boast of being “a new force in iron ore” has rung hollow – especially last year, when it was paying suppliers in scrip to preserve cash for interest payments – it is now moving beyond slogans. An equity raising from Hunan Valin in February made the group takeover-proof; now it will have access – presumably on sweetheart terms – to billions more to finance growth and repay expensive bonds. Rio and BHP may scorn this putative benchmark. But the bigger threat cannot be dismissed as lightly.

     Fortescue在首席执行官及持股31%的股东安德鲁·佛莱斯特(Andrew “Twiggy” Forrest)的领导下，向来是一家热衷于自我宣传的活跃的企业。不过，尽管该集团有关“铁矿石领域的新军”的自我吹嘘听上去有些空洞（尤其是在去年，该公司向供应商打白条，以便保存现金支付利息），但它目前正超越喊口号的境界。今年2月从湖南华菱(Hunan Valin)得到的股份投资，使该集团无需担心遭遇收购；如今，它能够得到数十亿美元的额外融资（想必是按照友好条款），能够投资于增长，偿还昂贵的债券。力拓与必和必拓也许看不起这一假定的基准。但对于更大的威胁，不能同样轻飘飘地不屑一顾。

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各取所需。fmg捞到实惠。

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FMG 貌似都拆了一次了，

以前很不值钱的。  之前买的都发达了

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Credit Suisse            01/09/2009            5            Underperform - Initiation of Coverage             $4.21             2.4%
The broker has initiated coverage with an Underperform rating, noting there is scope for significant increases in production and higher iron ore prices to push up earnings, but there also remains significant risk associated with the stock. One of these risks is its highly geared capital structure.

While the company's alignment with the Chinese may appear favourable, the broker points out that the market is difficult to predict. Sticking to fundamentals, CS believes a negative rating is justified.

Deutsche Bank         18/08/2009         5         Sell         $2.60         - 58.1%
The broker thinks the company is taking the right steps to sort out both its near term cash flow issues, while building the platform to deliver on its on prior growth expectations to 110mtpa.

But the stock is still trading at a significant premium to the broker's valuation and target price, so rumours of a Chinese funding deal that will allow it to deliver on the aforementioned issues is really needed just to get back to level with prior expectations.

So while things may be starting to look a little better for Fortescue, it seems the broker wants things to actually be a little better before it shifts from its Sell call.

RBS Australia         18/08/2009         5         Sell         $2.89         - 42.2%
Target $2.89 (was $2.09). The company has agreed to a 35% price cut with China, which the broker views as a good outcome.

There is also scope within the agreement for some financing for an expansion of production but even allowing for this the broker sees the stock as expensive at current levels.

While its price target has increased the broker retains its Sell rating.

Macquarie         18/08/2009         5         Underperform         $2.05         - 100.5%
The broker has long argued that the market is seriously overpricing Fortescue by pricing in ambitious expansion plans with little heed given to the risks involved. More recently it has argued the market had been buying up the shares based on a rising spot iron ore price while FMG was selling iron ore closer to the new contract price.

That reality is now apparent, as FMG has settled contracts at a price lower than the recent Japanese price settlement with the bigger players. This leads the broker to reduce forecast earnings by 10%.

No change to Underperform.

Citi         18/08/2009         5         Sell, High Risk         $3.30         - 24.5%
Citi notes Fortescue Metals has reached an iron-ore price agreement with the Chinese but is lukewarm on the deal, which the broker observes is below benchmark with other steel producers.

Citi maintains its Sell rating and target price.

JP Morgan         18/08/2009         5         Underweight         $2.07         - 98.6%
Target $2.07 (was $2.04). The broker notes the company has settled on prices with Chinese buyers and also agreed to a financing deal to help with its planned production expansion.

Factoring this into its model the broker sees minimal valuation impact from the expansion at present and so it retains its Underweight rating with only a minor change in price target.

UBS         11/08/2009         5         Sell         $3.30         - 24.5%
Lower realised pricing lead to a lower than expected result, UBS says.

However, FY10 profit forecasts have been lifted by 5% to US$450m following minor changes, the analysts add.

The stock is stretched on valuation, UBS says, but there is upside risk if iron ore prices continue to rally.

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现在怎样了？ 买的都赚了吗？ 呵呵

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4快多到5快多附近做波段的，应该是赚的。

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昨天9块钱入想做个个9-9.5这个波段， 以为被套结果刚才一看9.5的卖单居然成交了
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