Updated 1H21 and FY21 guidance
The a2 Milk Company today provides an update to its guidance for 1H21 and FY21.
We advised in August of a number of issues being experienced relating to our infant nutrition business as a result of COVID-19. This included the flow-on effect of pantry destocking continuing into FY21 following the strong sales uplift in 3Q20 and lower than anticipated sales to retail daigous in Australia, primarily due to reduced tourism from China and international student numbers.
In September we further advised that we had also started to observe additional disruption to the corporate daigou / reseller channel, particularly due to the prolonged Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria, with a contraction beyond our previous expectations.
At that time, we believed this to be a single channel logistics issue and were of the view that the impact to the daigou channel would prove to be temporary, assuming stabilisation of COVID-19 related issues in Australia.
At our Annual Meeting in November, we noted that we were maintaining our previously advised guidance, but that due to the volatility arising from COVID-19, and the difficulties this presents with forecasting, naturally there was uncertainty to that forecast. We also acknowledged that the outlook provided for a significant increase in revenue in the second half, dependent on a number of key assumptions, including an improvement in the daigou channel and continued growth in our China label business.
Recent sales performance
The effect of the disruption in the daigou channel, which represents a significant proportion of our infant nutrition sales in our ANZ business, has proved to be more significant and protracted than was previously anticipated. While this has predominantly affected infant nutrition sales, sales in our other nutritionals segment have now also been impacted.
We had expected a moderation of the disruption to this important channel during the second quarter. While there has been some improvement, with infant nutrition sales through this channel expected to be higher in the second quarter than the first quarter, the acceleration of the recovery in recent weeks has been slower than we had previously expected.
Notwithstanding our recent focus on activating the CBEC channel in a manner which complements our daigou business, the disruption we are experiencing in the daigou channel is now having a more significant impact in CBEC. As previously noted, the daigou channel plays an important role in stimulating demand across multiple sales channels, including CBEC. While our performance in CBEC in the competitive 11/11
The a2 Milk Company Limited www.thea2milkcompany.com
NZX Code: ATM ASX Code: A2M
18 December 2020 NZX/ASX Market Release
online sales event showed year on year growth, sales in the CBEC channel in the period following that event have been below expectation.
1H21 and FY21 infant nutrition sales revenue in the ANZ segment and the CBEC channel
With the recent sales performance in the daigou channel not being as strong as previously expected, we now consider that the recovery in this important channel through the balance of the fiscal year will also be slower. We expect that COVID-19 related travel restrictions will continue to negatively impact the reseller channel due to reduced travel between Australia and China through the remainder of FY21, with limited prospect of a return of a significant number of international students and tourists to Australia during the period.
Our internal sales forecasts for both the daigou and the CBEC channels for the remainder of FY21 are now materially lower. Notwithstanding the interdependency between these channels, given the strategically important role of the daigou channel, including in new user recruitment, we intend to strengthen our focus on reactivating the daigou channel in the second half.
1H21 Mother & Baby Stores (MBS) revenue
It is pleasing to note our performance in China label in MBS remains very strong and we anticipate revenue growth in the first half above 40 per cent on the prior corresponding period. Our 12-month rolling market value share in MBS also continues to increase, now at 2.3 per cent as at the end of October, with increases in both same store sales and the number of new stores in the first half.
Strong underlying brand health metrics
Notwithstanding the channel disruption noted above, we continue to record strong underlying brand health metrics in China. Our most recent research again highlighted positive trends in lead indicators such as awareness and intention to purchase. We continue to see a positive impact from the marketing investment in activation and brand building activities supported by the on the ground capability investments we have made over the past 18-24 months.
As a result, we remain confident in the underlying strengths of the business and will continue a high level of investment in marketing during the balance of the year.
Liquid milk performing well
In addition, it should be noted that our liquid milk businesses in Australia and the USA have performed well through the first half, with both business posting strong first half growth as compared to 1H20.
Updated 1H21 and FY21 guidance
We now expect:
• Group revenue for 1H21 in the order of $670 million, noting that 2Q21 will be higher than 1Q21
• Group EBITDA margin for 1H21 in the order of 27 per cent
2
Notwithstanding the unprecedented level of uncertainty and volatility in market conditions as a result of COVID-19 and foreign exchange headwinds, we now provide an update to our FY21 guidance as follows:
• Group revenue for FY21 of $1.40 billion to $1.55 billion
• Group EBITDA margin for FY21 of between 26 per cent and 29 per cent.
These numbers exclude any costs relating to the potential acquisition of an interest in Mataura Valley Milk Limited.
Medium-term target
As previously announced, the Board considers it appropriate that the Company target an EBITDA margin in the order of 30% in the medium-term. Notwithstanding the current headwinds, the Board considers the strength of the brand and the fundamentals of the business over the medium term remain sound.
Authorised for release by the Board of Directors Geoffrey Babidge
Chief Executive Officer
The a2 Milk Company Limited
For further information, please contact: Investors / Analysts
David Akers
Head of Investor Relations
M +61 412 944 577 [email protected]
Media
Rick Willis
M +61 411 839 344 [email protected]
评论
不碰下跌的股票， 从20跌到10 还不说明一切了吗？
短线快进快出可。
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这种速度 短期内去5 都不奇怪
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别人恐惧我贪婪。机会错过就是一辈子的事
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a2 后面是贝拉米那条路，一路跌跌跌，管理层受不了，卖掉公司套现走人。
澳洲管理层都差不多这个套路，好的公司坚持不了多久就垮了。
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20个交易日，市场会给出个合理价，然后可对照估价买进是否合理。长期价值来看，10元以下买进亏钱的可能性几乎为0。这是我个人意见。
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長線的買點出現了
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要谨慎
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这很容易接盘接在天花板
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之前好几个人发过帖子 有的人还谈价值投资。别人炒过的剩饭 ，闻到香味了，却只有洗盘子的份。可叹可叹可惜可惜。人性一直都是这样持续下去。
一段时间内涨了10倍，还有人跟你分析价值投资，市场占有等等。也真是无语了。
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买了点，打算做短差T+0。
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历史上把daigou写进自己正式文件的上市公司全世界有多少
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10块2了
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10块以下可以买
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好嘛，一眨眼10块3 了。
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抛盘冲天啊
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跌到六块时买点
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平掉了，赚了几只龙虾
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daigou影响这么大:o
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最可恶的不是真正的抛盘，而是机构的量化交易盘，上串下跳控制盘面的多是那些机器人交易。今天期权期货到期日，本身大市不好的可能性很大，这些量化交易盘更有机可趁。
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入了点，接飞刀。感觉比TWE确定性高。
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在澳洲不太见一步跌到位的，应该还有一段颓势，中长线要小心，这股毕竟不分红
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10块钱从新建仓。开个观察仓看下。
刚发的奖金正好没地方用，买点观察。
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哈哈 贝拉米的 出入也挺好啊
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我觉得它还不如TWE
它主要的婴儿奶粉收益下降，这个又不能通过增大澳洲地区自销来实现。而且今年，明年移民人数下降，本地生育率下降。
TWE在中国利润高，但是在本地也是赚钱的。
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不是吹，A2会成为澳洲的茅台
理由是：国内14亿的市场+源源不断的新生儿，国家放开2胎政策，有钱人都在拼命生娃
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其实只考虑做短差的话，暴跌后的一个小小修正就可以赚钱了。
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TWE硬撑而已，业绩利空还没显现。而A2利空已经显现
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二胎放开好几年了，前两年确实增加不少，之后就不明显了。网上好多相关统计文章。
中产经济和精力压力大，生二胎意愿低。在国内房产暴涨中挣到钱的人想生的也生完了，剩下为高房价接盘的年轻人生不起了。
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管理层太乱了 这公司太狗了
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