新西兰最新QV报告:房价在平稳一段时期后继续向上涨!


在新西兰


http://www.qv.co.nz/resources/news/article?blogId=152
最新每月QV关于住宅房价波动指数显示:今年4月的全国的房价比去比去年增加了8.4%,比今年头3个月增加了0.2%。 这个意味着现在的房价比上一个高峰2007年是高出了13%。但是扣除了通胀,比2007年时还是低了2.9%

但是奥克兰的房屋市场年增幅为13.9%,房价从2007年来增加了29.2%,扣除通胀,比去年涨了12.2%, 比2007年高峰是涨了10.9%

数据摆在那里,证明奥克兰的房子一直在涨,还是那句话:想买房的朋友继续买,想等房价跌的朋友继续等

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Property values rise again after a period of flattening off
4  4 Email14 ShareThis22

08 May 2014

The latest monthly QV Residential Price Movement Index shows that nationwide residential values for April have increased 8.4% over the past year, and 0.2% over the past three months.  This means they are now 13% above the previous market peak of late 2007. When adjusted for inflation the nationwide annual increase drops slightly to 6.8% and values remain below the 2007 peak by -2.9%.

The Auckland market has increased 13.9% year on year and values are up 29.2% since 2007.  When adjusted for inflation values are up 12.2% over the past year and are 10.9% above the 2007 peak.



Andrea Rush QV National Spokesperson said, “New Zealand property values took a downward turn last month and predictions were that this would level out, but instead the trend show values are starting to increase again.”

“The nationwide index for April shows values accelerating at a similar rate to last year and Auckland values have also risen across all five main former territorial authority areas after a few months of slowing earlier this year.”

“First home buyer numbers picked up in the month of March at a New Zealand wide level and across all regional markets according to CoreLogic NZ data.”

“This would lead us to believe that the LVR changes have resulted in only small changes to the number of sales made to first home buyers and could indicate that they are now finding alternative ways to finance property.”


Auckland

Property growth in the Super City region continues to rise, up 13.9% year on year and 1.5% in the past three months.

Values in Auckland City Central are showing the largest increase over the past three months, up 5% since February, while the North Shore - North Harbour increased 3% and Rodney North was up 2.9% over the same period.

The average value of properties in Auckland City East is $1,043,098 and this part of Auckland is up 14.9% year on year and 30.7% since 2007. Values in Auckland City South increased 0.9% over the past three months, 13.9% since April last year and are 37.7% above the previous peak of 2007, which is a national high.

QV Valuer Bruce Wiggins said, “Values are still increasing but at a slower rate than last year and some properties are taking a little longer to sell.”

“The number of sales is down on late mid to late last year and we have begun to see price reduction stickers appearing in some areas, which have been a rarity up until now.”

“This could show that sellers are needing to re-align their sale price expectations to the true market trends and the fact that market conditions are less competitive than they were prior to October last year when the LVR speed limits were introduced.”

“With the Kiwi dollar higher against other major currencies including the Chinese Yuan overseas buyers, as well as migrants from China and other major migrant groups, have had their purchasing power reduced, which could be contributing to softening prices a bit too.”


Hamilton and Tauranga

Values in Hamilton City are up 0.9 percent in the past three months, 4.7% year on year and 0.6% above the previous peak of 2007. The market that has seen with the greatest increase in values is the North East of the city which is up 1.6% over the past three months, 6.7% over the past year and is 2.3% above the 2007 peak. Hamilton Central and North West is up 5% in the past three months and 5.5% year on year but remains 4.8% below the peak of 2007.

QV Valuer Richard Allen said, “There continues to be minimal activity at the lower end of the market since the Loan to Value Ratio limits were brought in.”

“Although the values increased slightly for March there has not been lot of activity across the board with most of it in the middle to upper market. Suburbs such as Huntington and Rototuna continue to sell well with suburbs such as Fairfield, Nawton and Melville being less popular.”

“Rental levels have increased, which is likely to be caused by less first-home-buyers purchasing and opting to rent instead.”

The Tauranga City market has increased 2.1% in the past three months and 4.8% year on year. However, the market is still 6.7% below the peak of 2007. The Western Bay of Plenty is up 4.2% year on year and 2.6% in the past three months but remains 8.4% below the 2007 peak.


Wellington                                                               

Values across the Wellington Region as a whole are up 0.6 % over the past three months. 2.8% year on year and are sitting at 0.1% below the 2007 peak.

Wellington West is the market leader with values there up 1.4% since February, 4.6% year on year, and 2.5% above the previous peak of 2007. The average value in the area is $607,444 which is also the highest in the Wellington region.

Values in Lower Hutt are up 1.8% over the past three months and 3.6% year on year but remain 3.3% below the 2007 peak while values in Upper Hutt are down by 2.1% since February, up 0.4% since April last year and 4.9% below 2007 levels.

QV Valuer, Kerry Buckeridge said, “Buyers who have been in the market for property for some time are now knuckling down to make some decisions so that they have time to lock in a good interest rate before further rate rises.”

“There is no lack of supply in most of Wellington and the excess of choice often leads to slower decision-making from potential buyers.”

“Sales activity in the Eastern suburbs, previously has been driven in popularity by Peter Jackson and Weta Workshop projects, is currently in a lull with no projects underway however values there are still up 2.1% since April last year.”

“Tenant demand for inner city apartments is high, particularly from people wanting to rent studio and 1-bedroom apartments, with good rentals being obtained and some landlords noting full waiting lists.  These apartments are proving capable of generating attractive net returns for investors”.


Christchurch

Property values in Christchurch City have decreased 1% over the past three months, but are up 7.9% since April last year and are 19.1% higher than the peak of 2007.

Values in Southwest Christchurch have increased 0.1% higher over the past three months 10. 8% since this time last year and 26.4 % since 2007.

The average value in the Christchurch Hills is the highest in the city at $604,697 but the area is down 3.3% over the past three months, up 1.1% year on year, and 9.3% above the previous peak of 2007.

QV Valuer Daryl Taggart said “The market is flatter at the moment and while there is the usual activity there doesn't seem to be the hype and fierce competition for property seen this time last year.”

“Some properties are on the market longer as vendors hold out for the right buyer, which could suggest there is a bit more choice in the market.”

“The general feeling is that the market has steadied although we are still seeing growth, just not that rapid rise of early 2013. In some areas, I would suggest that properties have increased very little in the last year, as there are not the buyers that are prepared to pay over the odds.”


Dunedin

Dunedin City values increased 0.3% over the past three months, 1.7% year on year and are 1.3% above the peak of 2007.

Dunedin -Taieri has the highest average value in the city of $301,459 and values in the area have increased 1% over the past three months, 2.3% year on year, and 2.6% since the peak of 2007.

QV Valuer Duncan Jack said “Value levels within Dunedin remain steady and demand continues to be fairly strong for the majority of properties currently on the market however listings are low for this time of year.”

“Buyers are cautious, perhaps with one eye on the rising interest rates and real estate agents are finding they need to work hard to achieve sales.”

“Activity in the lower end of the market continues to be at lower levels than prior to the LVR changes brought in on October 1.”

“Recent rises in the average sale price would appear to be due to the numbers of sales in the mid to upper price range relative to that of the numbers in the lower price range so value levels are not increasing significantly.”


Provincial centres

The majority of values in the provincial centres still remain below the previous peak of 2007 with the exceptions mainly being centres or districts closer to Auckland and Christchurch where the property markets have increased significantly since that time.

In the North Island, New Plymouth District is one region that has gone against this trend and values there are up 1.1% in the past three months, 5.7% year on year and 5.9 % since the previous peak of 2007.

In the South Island, Nelson City is also above the previous peak of 2007, however the city has benefitted from migration from Christchurch since the earthquakes. Values there are up 0.3 % in the past three months, 3.1% year on year and 5.3% since 2007.




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牛岭鼠沙发不坐,自己坐

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板凳。。。。。

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“With the Kiwi dollar higher against other major currencies including the Chinese Yuan overseas buyers, as well as migrants from China and other major migrant groups, have had their purchasing power reduced, which could be contributing to softening prices a bit too.”

确实啊 我也在等换纽币  纽币已经开始下行了  等美国QE结束 各种数据继续上升 然后公布美国升息具体时间 就可以换纽币了 现在真的不合算 相信很多海外买家也在等

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房市明显已经不行了,管你说得天花乱坠,成交量说明一切问题,有价无市有个屁用。新房价格升高不少是因为土地价格升高,而那些开发商为保持利润就提高房子的销售价格,但是随着土地供应量的增加和因为成交量的下跌,土地销售必定不能延续之前的火爆,到时价格还能保持坚挺吗?就怕那些囤地的会再次陷入08,09年的危机吧,别忘了银行的利率今后几年也一直会调高,到时候有几个能扛得住呢?拭目以待。

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QV說的話能信?樓市跌了他們吃什麽啊啊啊啊

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wait by end of this year, and see what happens,

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涨很正常,不涨才不正常,按照通货膨胀也必须涨。其实这点增幅一点都不大,而且还很小。 不过按照数据07年到现在6年多才增加了29%。如果不加上杠杆的话,每年复利不到5%的回报率,(1+5%)^6 = 1.34%  平均复利才4%多一点的回报率,就是全国最高增幅地方也才37%,5%复利多一点而已。这还是这几年回报率好的情况,如果回报率不好的情况,每年最也就是3%平均左右回报率。太低了。而且占用你的大部分资金。 中国人主要是缺乏有效的投资工具,中国开放晚,很多金融都发展不成熟,导致大家只会投资房地产,也潜在很大风险,这个风险早晚会爆发出来。全部投资房地产存在很大风险,我们现在是没有遇到关于房地产的金融危机,但不证明以后没有,太多东西,比房地产回报率高太多了。

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占用你的大部分资金??? 我至少有2个房子只是化了律师费而已,投资房产的人都懂的,呵呵

可能你做外汇没有投资房地产

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对于大多数人来说,房产肯定占肯定你主要的投资方式来说,大哥肯定是财大气粗,随便买几套房子跟玩一样,一般人肯定不能跟你比。 我是说那些大部分没有多少钱中产阶级的人,自己有一套住房就可以了,不要把自己搞得压力太大,做到合理的资产配比。

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真是笑话,投资房地产怎么能不用杠杆?兄弟,我不做外汇,所以我从不对外汇指手划脚。请你也有点自知之明,如果你不投资房产的的话,请你尽量少在这方面发言,免得闹笑话。

我可以告诉你,我除了自己自住房以外,其它所有房产都只付了律师费和building inspection,valuation的费用。全部花费这十多年加起来也就几万块,而现在房地产的净资产有好几百万。

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QV的报告其实是在告诉我们:所谓的稳或毛毛雨的升,其实就是跌--或者向下震荡.对有房或多房的一点都不影响,而对无房或想买房的---悠着点,该看房的看,该下手的下----任何想未来猛涨或猛跌都是不现实的--除非...

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没说不让用杠杆啊,我的杠杆说不定比你还大,我没说不投资房产啊,我自己也投资有啊,你理解偏了,我是的意思只是说资产配比而已。只是说有些人风险控制比例太大,搞得自己相当紧张,没必要,盲目跟风,一旦遇到危机,吃亏的是你自己,大多数人没有人像你一样有丰富的经验,有投资眼光。就像炒外汇,做股票,都一样道理。任何投资都不是完美的,我只是发表一下意见而已。我虽然主业外汇出身,但是也算对房地产有所研究而已,之前我就是建筑工程出身的,上学期间兼职就在barfoot 里面做 pa, 现在,现在做投资理财分析, 也包含对房地产投资,会对整体回报率都会有计算。就算你说的杠杆比例,我也计算,包含利息,回报率,通货膨胀,以及花费,包含每年的租金收入,空置率,都会有几年的一个详细投资计划,会计算出,每一年的回报率,都有详细报表。我会计算一些人投资风险比例,做理财计划。可能前辈对房地产是专家,小弟没敢挑战您的地位,我不会夸大 ,都是按照实际计算数据说明问题. 我只是提醒一些投资者,不要盲目跟风,时刻注意风险,你的杠杆大,你的风险就大,具体要根据自己的情况而定。

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