在新西兰
指望奥克兰房价腰斩真的是天方夜谭。
The Salvation Army said this morning that the housing crisis in Auckland was adding "incredible stress" to the day-to-day lives of many families.
The charity's annual State of the Nation report shows the housing shortage in the city worsened by a record near-4000 houses last year, as a pickup in home-building was "swamped" by a tide of new immigrants.
The report, A Mountain All Can Climb, says the city needed 11,200 new homes last year to house a population increase of 33,700 people at the region's average of three people per dwelling. But permits for only 7366 new dwellings were issued, leaving a shortfall of about 3800.
Salvation Army social policy director Major Sue Hay told TV3's Firstline said that supply was the big issue that needed to addressed. "Land needs to be made available so that more houses can be built at an affordable price for low income people.
"There's incredible stress for people in terms of housing, the impact on their rents, the impact on their ability to feel like they are providing for their families, the constant stress of shifting. Some of our families shift six times in a year or don't know where they are living day-to-day. That adds incredible stress."
The Salvation army said, overall, the report was a "good news bad news story".
"There are some incredible positives. We are thrilled that youth culture is looking better. Youth offending is down youth employment is up. Teenage pregnancy rates continue to drop, and overall in New Zealand we are drinking and gambling less - so there are some real positives."
However, they were disappointed with domestic violence statistics, she told the programme.
"Serious violence and domestic violence is not really shifting, and a hard proportion of that violence is happening in our homes. It's an issue we need to bring out from behind closed doors and start to address as a nation."
The report, written by the army's social policy analyst and former Manukau city councillor Alan Johnson, gave the Government a "D" grade for housing in its social wellbeing scorecard.
The shortage in new housing Auckland has helped to drive the region's median house prices up 10 per cent to a record $670,000.
Median rents rose by only 5 per cent, but there were much bigger increases in many traditionally low-priced suburbs as people unable to find places to rent in higher-priced areas "spilled over" into less sought-after neighbourhoods.
Outside housing, the report found some good news as economic recovery from the recent recession flowed through into more jobs, higher incomes and dwindling welfare rolls.
The proportion of children in families on welfare may have dropped to its lowest level for 25 years, through a combination of welfare reforms pushing beneficiaries into work and more jobs pulling them in to earn higher incomes.
The number of children on welfare is historically an early indicator of child poverty levels, making it possible that child poverty may also have dropped to rates not seen for a generation.
But Mr Johnson warned that the historical link may have been weakened by increasing use of casual work and by escalating housing costs, which may leave many of those who have found work little better off than they were on benefits. "We might be finding that people are jumping from one poverty trap to another," he said.
The report estimates that Auckland's cumulative shortage of new houses over the past five years has now reached between 12,000 and 13,000.
"Over this period, Auckland has received 49 per cent of New Zealand's population growth, yet gained only 26 per cent of new housing consents," it says.
In the past year most of the city's population growth (27,600) came from net immigration from overseas, only partly offset by net internal out-migration of 5200 people to the rest of New Zealand. There was also a natural excess of 13,671 births over deaths.
In contrast, new dwelling consents in Christchurch, at 6668 last year, were much more in balance with a population increase of about 10,100. The report says the Christchurch population is now back up to 465,800, slightly more than before the 2010-11 earthquakes, and its housing stock has recovered to 185,000, only slightly below its pre-quake stock of 186,200.
It finds that rents for three-bedroom houses in the lower quarter of the market increased by more than consumer prices over the past five years in 23 out of 25 towns and suburbs that it selected as the lowest-valued parts of the country's main populated regions.
The biggest increases were in the Auckland suburb of Otahuhu (up 38 per cent) and in three Christchurch suburbs. The highest rents of the 25 communities were in Panmure, where lower-quarter rents for three-bedroom houses are now $445 a week.
Greenstone Group managing director Phil Eaton, who chairs the Property Council's Auckland branch, said the cheapest way to build more affordable housing quickly would be through more intensive housing such as apartments and townhouses in built-up areas with existing services.
"Sprawling greenfields development is not the only answer," he said. "We need smarter, well designed and located housing closer to where the jobs are."
Skyrocketing rents stretch young family
When Jason Paul and Jess Severn returned to Auckland in December, the only place they could find to live was an upstairs flat costing $470 a week.
The couple, both 26, have two children - 4-month-old son Liam and 2-year-old Bailey. They wanted somewhere where the children could play outside.
Instead, their three-bedroom unit near the Panmure Basin backs right on to another unit and has only a sealed parking space between their front door and a busy highway.
They are lucky to have it. After Mr Paul's job on a dairy farm near Dargaville was sunk by plunging dairy prices in September, just weeks before Bailey was born, they searched the internet for houses in Auckland where both grew up.
"We applied for each house, we were applying for a lot, but so were thousands of other people," Mr Paul said.
They were casual workers at the Vector Arena before they moved north last year. They kept up that work even while they were up north, and since, but they have lived mainly on a benefit until Ms Severn started a job as a shop assistant this week. After paying the rent, they live on only $80 a week.
Their letting agent has just found them a three-bedroom house in South Auckland at $430 a week - with a backyard.
"It's an issue we need to bring out from behind closed doors and start to address as a nation."
- additional reporting NZME. News Service
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11399802
评论
刚才看新闻的时候就想一定会有人转过来的
不过缺少这么多房子，那这些人最后都住哪里了呢？挤别人家吗
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这个计算模式是人人都需要买房的情况。。。
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很多人住garage和亲戚的家里吧
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缺房严重，有大地房子的，又要火了
恭喜阿海预测到房屋短缺，抢了中区大片土地
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消化需要过程，慢慢的会有一些人离开奥克兰。最近邻居一家就搬到惠灵顿去了。。。。。。
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租房也是一样的啊
本来达到了平衡，现在进来几万人，又多造了几千套房子，肯定不平衡了啊
要么是本来就不平衡，有很多空房子，要么就是平均的实际密度高于每个房子三个人。。。
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两年还卖不出的房子也有上千套吧, 怎会缺4000套？
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国家党几年来带路的结果.
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近来发现有两家合租的苗头。
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祝贺 “谈房说地”又一大空头诞生！
前两年那几个大空头已经都销声匿迹，或者空转多了。
你的下场将和他们一样！
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你意思是说你是执迷不悟的炒房大多头 ？
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不管空头多头的，没有一身的高额贷款，生活就是过的轻松多了。
买个投资房，花去所有积蓄不说，还要借贷五六十万，或是近百万，天天惦记着租客和利率的涨跌，生活过的压力多大啊。
而且房市不可以一直看涨，买房也不是一定获益。仔细算算，除去利息和卖房的中介费，挣不了多少钱的。
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我从不炒房。
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贷款是有好几十万，但资产有好几百万。你说这到底是没贷款的生活轻松，还是浄资产有好几百万的人生活潇洒？
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今明两年在建的apratment也有2，3千套吧。
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massy,flat bush, silverdale, gulf harbour.... 的新房也不好卖
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好几百万cash的人生活才潇洒.
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炒房阴谋论:
1. 洋人炒高, 华人接手
2. 清空公屋, 下行前奏
3. 欧美资金, 出逃换汇
4. 套牢中资, 两面双杀
5. 洋人返购, 再赚一手
............etc.
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鱼木脑袋， 好几百万cash在手里天天在贬值（除非你马上花光， 可花光后就没资产了）；而好几百万房产在手里不断升值。
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鱼木脑袋， 好几百万cash在手里生息又换汇赚钱呢.
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这个问题问得好，哈哈！
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除了房产外每周还有几千租金那才交叫爽
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那我爸媽算爽的
我還在努力，雖然有房但mortgage也多，positive 的cashflow 每周才不到1000
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一直对flat bush的房子感兴趣，但最近发现基本上都流拍了，感觉还是要价高了5-10万。