新西兰转载:如何预测下一个房地产泡沫


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How to Use Real Estate Trends to Predict the Next Housing Bubble


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Teo Nicolais


by Teo Nicolais. Nicolais is a real estate entrepreneur based in Denver. He teaches the program Real Estate Investment Strategies as well as courses atHarvard Extension School.

“The next major bust, 18 years after the 1990 downturn, will be around 2008, if there is no major interruption such as a global war.” — Fred E. Foldvary (1997)

The destructive wave that swept across the US economy in 2008 seemed to catch the world completely by surprise. The phrase so often used to describe it, a “financial tsunami,” reinforces the popular belief that the disaster arose suddenly.

In reality the build up to the Great Recession could be clearly tracked and its timing predicted with a stunning degree of accuracy long before the phrase “collateralized debt obligation” entered the popular lexicon.

The real cause of the crisis is far older, far more interesting, and far more profitable to understand for those interested in what lies ahead.

The four phases of the real estate cycle

As early as 1876, Henry George observed the curious cycle through which real estate markets inexorably move. His findings can be summarized (with the help of Glenn R. Mueller’s refinements) as follows:

Phase I: recovery

We know the characteristics of a recession: high unemployment; decreased consumption; and decreased company investment in buildings, factories, and machines. The price of land, essential for economic activity, is at its lowest point in the cycle.

As population increases so does the demand for goods and services. This expansion is typically hastened by government intervention in the form of lowered interest rates (the key ingredient for investment).

With increasing demand and lower investment costs, companies expand their businesses. They hire more people, build new factories, and buy more machines. This expansion adds to the demand for land (buildings) on which the economic activity can take place.

Vacancy across all real estate asset classes (office, retail, residential, etc.) decreases as companies use previously empty buildings and individuals move into previously vacant homes.

Phase II: expansion

The transition from recovery to expansion occurs when companies and individuals have bought up or rented most of the available buildings. Occupancy begins to exceed the long-term average. As unoccupied buildings become scarce, landowners raise rents.

Since most real estate expenses are fixed, increased revenues translate almost dollar-for-dollar into increased profits. Increased profits attract new development of vacant land or redevelopment of existing properties.

Basic economics tells us that new supply will satisfy demand and eliminate the upward pressure on rents and land prices accordingly. But here’s the twist: it takes a long time to add new inventory to the real estate market once it’s needed.

Market studies must be undertaken. Land sales must be negotiated. Zoning and permitting must be obtained. Financing for the project must be found (no easy feat coming out of a recession). Only then does new construction begin. And the construction itself takes a long time (two to five years for the average development).

By the time meaningful amounts of inventory start to come online, the overall economic expansion has been under way—without the benefit of new supply—for five to seven years. During all of that time, occupancy rates and rents have been increasing.

In fact, the cycle reaches a point at which rents are not simply going up—they are going up faster and faster (rent growth is accelerating). Investors build this trend into their forecasts. And we reach that critical point in the real estate cycle where, as William Newman documented as far back as 1935, the price of land begins to reflect not the existing market conditions but rather the anticipated rent growth to come.

Investors, believing the price is justified by the future growth, overpay for the land relative to the current market, and start building for a future market. The boom is officially on.

Phase III: hyper supply

As long as the current occupancy rate exceeds the long-term average, there will be upward pressure on rents. As long as there is upward pressure on rents, new construction is financially feasible. This is the case for both the expansion and hyper-supply phases.

The first indicator of trouble

The delineation point between expansion and market hyper supply is marked by the first indicator of trouble in the real estate cycle: an increase in unsold inventory/vacancy.

This occurs as new completions from the mid-expansion phase begin to quench the market’s thirst for product. With occupancy rates above the long-term average, rents are still rising but the rate at which they are rising now changes: rent growth is no longer accelerating, but rather decelerating.

This is a precarious time in the real estate cycle. And what happens next will determine how severe the upcoming recession will be.

Wise developers, noting the change in direction of rent growth and factoring in the likely consequence of units currently under construction being completed, should choose to stop building. If you find such a developer, please let me know.

Phase 4: recessionThe second indicator of trouble

The transition from hyper supply to recession is marked by the second indicator of trouble in the cycle: occupancy falls below the long-term average.

New construction stops, but projects started in the hyper-supply phase continue to be delivered. The addition of surplus inventory leads to lower occupancy and lower rents, which significantly reduces revenue for landowners.

The third indicator of trouble

Finally, investors must watch for the third indicator of trouble: an increase in interest rates.

The increases in prices throughout the broader economy that accompanied the expansion and hyper-supply phase will, sooner or later, force the Federal Reserve to fight inflation by increasing interest rates.

The good news is that this halts any developers still forging ahead in hyper-supply mode because the increase in borrowing costs makes new developments financially unfeasible.

The bad news is that it’s too late for the projects started in the midst of the boom. The music stopped, but there are still people rushing toward the dance floor.

The combination of lower occupancy, lower rent received on those occupied units, and increased interest expenses (a large fixed cost) quickly erodes landowners’ profits.

There are broader issues from the shutdown of the economy’s largest growth engine (new construction), but that is for another discussion. Suffice it to say, the downturn in the Real Estate market has a huge impact on the economy as a whole which, in turn, pushes the Real Estate market down further.

Vacancy stalks landowners and, as revenues fall below landowners’ fixed costs, foreclosures follow. The real estate cycle comes full circle and, as Foldvary (2007) notes, “shrewd investors pick up real estate bargains.”

The duration and frequency of the real estate cycle

Perhaps the most stunning aspect of the real estate cycle is not its inevitability but rather its regularity. Economist Homer Hoyt, through a detailed study of the Chicago and broader US real estate markets, found that the real estate cycle has run its course according to a steady 18-year rhythm since 1800.

With just two exceptions (World War II and the mid-cycle peak created by the Federal Reserve’s doubling of interest rates in 1979), the cycle has maintained its remarkable regularity even in the decades after Hoyt’s observation.

Where are we now?

It’s important to remember that the Great Recession was not caused by an unexpected event. To those who study the real estate cycle, the crash happened precisely on schedule. It was painful, but it inaugurated the next iteration of the real estate cycle.

As 2014 begins (eight years after the peak and six years after the crash), real estate markets across the country are transitioning from the recovery phase to the expansion phase. Nationally, Mueller’s estimate of the relative position of each asset class is as follows:

For many cities and asset classes the expansion phase is well under way. According to Glen Mueller, Boston, New York, Denver, and San Francisco, for example, are already experiencing incredibly tight rental markets and robust new construction in apartments.

Those who lived through the financial crisis of 2008 will (we hope) always be weary of the next major crash. If George, Harrison, and Foldvary are right, however, that won’t happen until after the next peak in 2024.  

Between now and then, aside from the occasional slow down, the real estate industry is likely to enjoy a long period of expansion.






评论
1968年到2014年Barfoot And Thompson记录的Auckland平均房价




评论
90年以来的贷款利率,对照上图和上面的文章看一下。




评论
别逗了
海外有华人的地方房子不会降的
而且现在国内房市不景气,很多人卖了国内的房子全款几套奥克兰扫房
降价?呵呵。当媒体鼓吹降价的时候,背后的投资商却在疯狂买入,囤地以便拉高价格
政党现在都不允许房价跌,
早买早超生,只有赚到没有赔~快来买吧~
嘿嘿

评论
不评论,自己看。数据自己会说话。

我也没说要降啊,我也没说要涨啊。。。就是引用一些论点和数据。

不同的人会有不同的解读方式吧。

评论

分享一个我的疯狂想法八(太疯狂,都不敢说,怕人笑话):

其实现在买不买房子都无所谓了,而且近年来房子不合逻辑的暴涨,背后的原因可能就是房子没有意义了.

偶立在风中
风却翻着我的书
而书中说的
无不是往事颠狂,愚人不悟


评论
图没画完整。。应该是这样的 (其实我也没画完。。) 周期不是说一轮就结束,是周而复始的。下一个低点,永远不会比前一个低点低。下一个高点,永远会比前一个高。因为这是房子,不是股票。
问个问题,2009年,所谓的低谷,房价难道比上一个低谷的时候便宜?谁能回答我?

所以我自己的投资观点是,凡事留一线,自己有资金撑过低点,回头又是好汉。没有过不去的坎。大家加油吧。






评论

这是要预测地震还是海啸还是火山爆发。
弱弱问一句,这种natrual disaster 保险公司陪不陪?

评论

陪的,陪的,大不了保险公司跟你一起破产,哈哈哈

评论

难道是科学进步到人类不再需要身体了?
或者已经在宇宙中找到适宜人类居住的行星了?



评论
穷爸爸富爸爸书里就说到美国股市每10年一周期,房市20年一周期

奥克兰8-10年一周期,要预测还是看Kieran Trass的书吧

评论
看银行利息吧,加息的时候是房市上扬,减息是银行预测到房市会下行,银行就是吃利息这碗饭的。

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之前有人转过了我记得

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上次泡沫的时候 加到9%的时候市场是什么样子的呢?

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