新西兰转帖一个30年前的统计
在新西兰
From the NZ Valuers report 1987. REading this confirms my belief Auckland has no new housing problem. This info is 30 years old, nothing has changed. We are just a nice place to live!
Auckland Property Market Report, Residential.
1987 saw a strong upward movement in both the volume of sales and the level of values, and this trend appeared to be reflected across the whole of Metropolitan Auckland.
One of the major Real Estate companies in Auckland reports a 45% increase in house sales volume over 1986, but a 63% increase in dollar sales turnover. Section sales volume remained fairly constant as did the sale of businesses. The period was essentially a catchup one from the previous over supply situation in early 1986.
The buoyant market occurring despite the continuing high level of residential interest rates which still range from 18% to 23%. At the time of writing there was no firm indication that interest rates were going to fall from their existing high level.
Section prices have also continued to rise throughout Auckland and residential subdivisions are mainly confined to the North Shore, West and South Auckland regions. There continues to be a strong demand for residential redevelopment sites throughout Auckland for unit housing.
Extremely high residential sale prices have been seen in the premium housing belt spread areas Epsom, Remuera and the Eastern Bays region. Approximately 21 properties changed hands in excess of $1,000,000 with the top sale being Florence Court in Epsom which reached $8,000,000 under a special sale negotiation.
Rental accommodation continues to be in short supply and rental rates have risen quite significantly, generally in the range of 25% to 30% since 1986.
Current levels are:
I Bedroom flats $120-$140 per week
2 Bedroom flats - $150-$200 per week
3 Bedroom houses - in excess of $200 per week
North Shore Region
There have been definite signs of an increase in property turnover during this year compared with the previous 12 months and the actual number of recorded sales increased by one-third to approximately 12,500. This increase has been accompanied by a smoothing of historical seasonal trends with the sales spread more evenly through the year.
Coupled with the increased volume of sales the average selling prices of houses has increased as shown by the Valuation Department June 1987 figure of $138,730.
As far as the volume of sales is concerned this area is second only to Christchurch, and in the house selling price second to Auckland. This market is responding in quite a different way than is shown by the national averages.
In the residential sector there is a wide range of property prices. Although residences with beach, water, and cliff-top influence are selling in the range $1.2-$1.4 million there are many good homes available at around $150,000 with some new group houses and existing owner occupier flats available below $100,000. A sale of considerable significance was a property fronting Takapuna Beach that had been in family ownership for many years. This contained a number of small cottages and two large dwellings and sold in July 1987 for $6 million.
South Auckland Region
Despite the fact that interest rates have not shown a significant drop over the last 12 months, the residential real estate market of southern Auckland (Papakura, north to Otahuhu and inclusive of Mangere/Otara) has shown fairly steady growth over the last 12 months and in some areas this is as high as 20%.
The South Auckland area contains some of Auckland's cheaper residential real estate while at the other end of the scale there are some fairly large, unique and irreplaceable properties - many of which are rural in character. The capital growth and demand for the latter form of real estate is often less dependent on mortgage levels/interest rates while at the lower end the growth in areas such as Otara, most of Mangere and parts of Papakura/Manurewa has been in the order of 12% over the past 12 month period although it is now very difficult to find properties which are selling at less than $60,000.
Indications are that there is a continued excess of demand over supply for properties which now form the middle range between $100,000-$150,000. Indeed in some locations such as Pahurehure and Conifer Grove in Papakura and Hillpark,
Manurewa, there are surprisingly few properties available at between $175,000-$225,000 with demand being apparently quite strong. On the other hand, while areas such as Totara Heights/Goodwood Heights have shown fairly good growth in the last 12 months, very few properties sell in excess of $200,000.
In these days of multi million dollar sales being the norm in central Auckland for residential properties, we are not aware of any `pure residential' sale in excess of $500,00 within the general South Auckland locality outlined earlier.
With respect to vacant section sales, it would appear that there had been fairly slow movement up until March/April of this year (possibly as a result of the after effects of GST).
However, since that time the demand and selling prices of vacant sections has continued to escalate - particularly in
the executive areas such as Conifer Grove, Pahurehure and The Gardens, Manurewa. There has been continued activity
with respect to cross leasing existing large residential sites - particularly in Papatoetoe.
Prices for all types of residential property within Howick and Pakuranga have continued to increase during 1987. At present local real estate agencies have a shortage of listings for vacant sites with well priced sites including cross leased sites selling quickly. Prices for standard three bedroomed group type dwellings have increased during the year with few properties selling for less than $100,000 and well presented dwellings selling for up to $150,000, inclusive of chattels. Units and townhouses also increased in value during the year, with very few units selling for less than $85,000 and new well appointed townhouses selling for between $200,000 and $300,000 depending on location and views. Superior residential dwellings have also increased in value and there is strong demand for properties with sea views or within close proximity of safe swimming beaches.
This has caused prices within the Bucklands Beach peninsula area to increase in value for all types of property and there is a continuing trend to remove the older baches and dwellings on large sites for townhouse or unit development.
West Auckland Region
The highest priced Suburbs within West Auckland are the harbour front areas of West Harbour and Hobsonville, the eastern slopes of Glendene and Te Atatu South and the northern slopes of Titirangi. Strong demand for property in these areas is brought about by:
1. Quality of surrounding homes which are predominantly
of good standard and construction;
2. Northerly aspects with landscape, City and Harbour views;
3. Proximity to motorway systems or main arterial roads linking
to C.B.D.;
4. In the case of West Harbour, its proximity to Westpark
Marina.
The lowest priced Suburbs include Glen Eden, Ranui/ Swanson, Henderson Valley and Kelston. The major influencing factors affecting value in these localities is the high proportion of low cost group housing and their peripheral location.
Average Value Ranges
The following value ranges apply to three bedroom dwellings with some form of garaging and construction and design
commensurate with the type of home found in each area.
Area Average Value Range ($)
Avondale 80,000-130,000
Blockhouse Bay/Green Bay 100,000-150,000
New Lynn 80,000-130,000
Titirangi 100,000-300,000
Laingholm/Huia 80,000-140,000
Piha 80,000-180,000
Kelston 80,000-110,000
Glen Eden 85,000-120,000
Glendene/Henderson -90,000-200,000
Te Atatu North 90,000-150,000
Massey 90,000-200,000
West Harbour/Hobsonville 150,000-300,000
Swanson/Ranui 80,000-120,000
Growth Potential
Those Suburbs showing best growth potential are: Hobsonville/West Harbour, Te Atatu North, New Lynn/Green Bay and Laingholm/Huia.
The West Harbour/Hobsonville area has shown steady growth over the past two years due mainly to the presence of the Westpark Marina and the fact that most of the homes are of good to superior standard, with most developers imposing quality controls. Proximity to the North Western Motorway also allows easy access to the Auckland C.B.D. which is within a 15-20 minute drive.
Te Atatu North is also located close to the North Western Motorway and while being a previously depressed locality, over recent times has shown increased value levels and demand. The majority of homes in the Te Atatu North Peninsula are within the 20-25 year bracket with potential for modernisation by prospective purchasers.
The recent upgrading and expansion works to the Lynnmall Shopping Centre will have an undoubted beneficial affect on the surrounding Suburbs of New Lynn, Blockhouse Bay and Green Bay.
Further out, the bush and beach areas of Laingholm and Huia are becoming more popular as the highly sought after area of Titirangi becomes unaffordable for all but the upper price level purchasers.
Poorest growth levels are seen in areas such as Ranui, Swanson, Glen Eden and Kelston where the majority of homes are of a moderate quality only and there is a predominance of group type housing.
评论
这么说西区30年前就说是潜力，发展快，30年过去了，还在发展，呵呵
评论
那年比现在更疯狂啊，供一个北岸的房子每周要花500多，只能租200，什么疯子会买投资房啊？
评论
一点不错，所以别再说什么潜力，要发展之类的， 都是新来的自己骗自己... 哈哈
评论
现在看一下6月份的房产中介数据，某区四房平均房租695，平均房价113万，付20%首付之后每周利息也要1000多，也差不多两倍，而且你113万未必能买到全幅地的好四房
评论
当你发现西区涨的时候，你会发现传统的好房涨的更多，海景，大地，学区还是王道
评论
这些疯子被证明都是百万千万富翁
评论
西区新高速和新商业区是实实在在的， 发展（潜力）与否先考虑这些硬件条件。 不然靠什么， 凭感觉？
西区的自住率会一直上升， 因为价平还有地。 补涨。
评论
你算的有问题，付完20%首付以后每周利息$730.非常接近房租了。
评论
西区的支柱是入门级三房或小四房。 家庭自住（或付不起房贷首付的kiwi租客）刚需。 海景+大地+学区房属于另一个价格区间。
评论
113w，去掉20%，贷款是90.4w，每年利率现在标准是4.1左右，有高的，也有更低的，我就拿4.1%算，本息一起还，30年，每月需要还4368.11，每周一千左右，不知道你的730哪里来的，是不是只还利息？
评论
是只还利息，既然说的是投资房。而且我拿来做比较的1987年的例子里，是只还利息的。要比较就要算法一样。
评论
不过，要比较的话，应该不算80%，算100%。每周$890.跟1987年的情况比起来，投资者的负担小很多。
评论
西区也只能自住了，没有名校，真正有钱人也不会去西区买房，唯一有可能发展起来的，就是hobsonville那边
评论
要是按照您这么说，房价还会继续上涨至少两年
评论
我觉得哈，房价普遍上涨，就是普通人推上去的，不用特别有钱人。
评论
我认同你一半，刚需确实是一部分，随着移民越来越多，住房需求肯定会越来越大，但更可怕的是，有相当一部分人，拥有两套以上住宅，因为目前为止，没有比买房更简单，粗暴的方式，令你的财富升值了。
甚至有很多打工一族，有5套以上的，外加农场，而且不是公寓，罪魁祸首，还是银行，现在出台这么多政策，调控，却一直在降房贷利率，因为他们也不怕崩盘，之前的坏账太多了。
评论
87年时候房贷利率20%以上，牛逼的谁敢买投资房。。。
评论
所以楼上的说罪魁祸首是银行，没错。
评论
这文章真是那个年代的吗？不太像，我同事说她八十年代买的torbay 的房子只有2.8 万，海景房上百万的应该也不多吧，九十年代末Epsom 的大房子也只有半米，那阵半米就是很多钱了，七八年前百万房还是豪宅呢，八十年代hosonville 应该不是住宅区吧，文章的真实度值得怀疑。
评论
torbay在那个时代是非常偏远的。我们邻居就是87年买的十几万，大破房，Northcote。现在还住着呢。