新西兰Berfoot 三月份奥克兰数据喜忧参半
在新西兰
三月份奥克兰数据出来了。中间价跟均价均比二月份有所上升，但仍小幅低于去年12月代售房源数大幅上升。大家怎么看是市场回稳开始上升还是Dead cat bounce ?
The agency sold 1180 residential properties in March, which was down by 36% compared to March last year.
However the sales levels in March last year were exceptionally high and leaving those aside, March sales this year were the highest they have been for the month of March since 2016.
Average and median selling prices remained below last year's peaks but have not shown a dramatic slide.
Barfoot's average selling prices in March was $1,234,572, up $38,000 from $1,196,036 in February, but down just over $44,000 from the peak of $1,278,647 set in December 2021.
The median March selling price was $1,180,000, up from $1,122,500 in February, but down $60,000 from the peak of $1,240,000 set in November last year.
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半年期不乐观，3年期会提升
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不用想，必须是 Dead cat bounce
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现在还是不要预测了，怎么说都会被反方辩友抓小辫儿的
使用的时间维度不同，统计结果就会有差异
何况认知还有不同呢，最后肯定有躺下的
最近中介生意下降倒是真的
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老外论坛说这是 tanking 库存上升 代售时间上升 有些好房卖出了很漂亮的价格 很多比较普通房子asking price下降 后续如何谁也不知道啊 知道了去年疫情刚lock down时候早买了
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只能说第二个肩膀形成了，可以瞑目了。。。
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去年lockdown的时候买已经晚了，近几年最好的买入时机是2020年三四月那次level 4前后的恐慌性抛售，我有几个朋友都在那段时间以低到你不敢相信的价钱买到了优质资产。
补充内容 (2022-4-5 20:58):
在那段时间买的房子，哪怕是从现在的市场价开始跌30%，恐怕也还是有赚的。
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我就是指那个时间 那时候lifesteyle带两房都是好几年前价格抛 后来涨起来了没意思了
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嗯，我认识有的人以低于2017年CV 20多万的价钱买到了中区的quarter acre可分割地。几个月后，邻居家也拿出来买，就已经贵了快100万。两家房子差不多。