澳洲总理莫里森警告： 在疫情危机结束之后，严厉的

在澳大利亚澳洲新闻



英国前首相丘吉尔有句名言：决不要让一个有意义的危机浪费掉。
澳洲现总理莫里森发出信号：在疫情危机结束之后，严厉的不受欢迎的改革势在必行。

国际货币基金组织预测，澳洲经济将下滑6.7%，这是1931年大萧条以来最严重的一次。
储备银行总裁在星期四警告内阁：过去20年来实行的经济政策必须改变，因为澳大利亚正面临着几代人以来最大的经济危机，灾情引起的控制措施，将失业率推高到10% 。目前的经济政策，不足以在未来几年支撑就业，投资，生产效率，及其人民生活水准。

所以莫里森总理 和财长，各州政府都必须在未来的几个月内，毫不手软地制定出一套严厉的全国经济计划。过去不敢触动的政治利益，这次都将被无情地献上祭坛。总理警告说，他可能会违背大选之前做出的承诺。

前财政部秘书John Fraser说总理是正确的，在目前的情况下必须采取非常手段

改革议题将包括

*大刀阔斧的税务改革，
*更改劳资关系法来使挣扎中的企业敢于招募新人，
*连贯一致的能源和环境气候政策框架，
*扫除对小企业的束缚。

前财政秘书Ken Henry's 博士在2010 年税务白皮书里列出的125点建议明显是讨论的起点。

目前这个晦涩的税务制度无法有效和公平地为国家财政集税。 澳洲的企业利润税和个人所得税税率在全球34个OECD（国际经济合作组织）成员国中 高居第2位。 58% 的联邦和州政府财政来源于企业和个人所得税收入， 远高于OECD平均水平 34%

高企的公司税抑制了投资， 与莫里森总理要求的以商业投资为先导的经济复苏计划相抵触。下一代澳洲人无法偿还今天澳洲人享受的1万亿元福利。正如IMF国际货币基金组织， OECD国际经济合作组织 和其他独立经济学家指出， 澳洲必须把税源指向对经济伤害最小的消费环节。

1，消费税 GST
澳洲目前执行的10% GST消费税只有世界平均水准的一半。
但是提高GST有可怕的政治后果，总理莫里森已经排除了提高GST可能性。
另外一种选项是完全放弃GST消费税，采用henry博士提议的全面征收“商业消费现金流税”，涵盖食品，健康和教育。

2，公司所得税 CORPORATE TAX
降低30%的公司所得税对负债累累的联邦预算来说是难以维系的，所以必须考虑其他财政收入手段，比如说降低资本增值税的减免，降低股票分红税务回馈（franking credit)，减少400亿的养老金税务(superannuation tax)优惠

3，资产增值税 CAPITAL GAIN TAX
澳洲人目前享有50%的资产增值税减免。但是投资取向大部分集中在消极的，不能提高劳动生产率的资产上，比如房子和上市的股票。资产增值税减免出台于1999年用以取代通胀指数。但现在的通胀和利息率已经大大低于当年， 资产增值不会轻易被通胀吞噬。 所以工党在2018年竞选时提出的资产增值税优惠砍到25%的方案，目前看来是最可行的。

4，公司现金流税。CORPORATE CASH FLOW TAX
Ross教授， 前著名改革派总理霍克的经济顾问， 提出了一个大胆的“公司现金流税”来达到财政平衡。
公司现金流税对新投资给予100%的税务减免，这将极大地促进澳洲目前日益颓废的劳动生产效率。只有生产力提高了工资才能大幅提高。

更激进的提议是采用公司现金流税制 将向大企业的巨额垄断利润征税， 比如公路收费公司，电力传输公司 和硅谷科技巨头。而那些高投资，高创新的企业如生化技术企业CSL将少交税。

这样一来，利用利润转移， 债务抵扣，滥用税务天堂的 跨国公司们将被重税。
而无法钻国际税务漏洞的， 无法牟取暴利的小公司将是这次改革的赢家。

5. 印花税 STAMP DUTY

NSW 财长Dominic Perrottet 同意GST改革。

他满脑子着急的是如何让房地产拥有者从只交一次的印花税过度到每年必交的土地税 （LAND TAX）

从印花税过度到土地税将带来极大的经济和社会效益，包括人们可以经常搬家，就近上班，减少交通拥堵，添孩子的家庭能够增大居住面积，老人可以减少居住面积，减少政府财政收入的波动。

从一次性的印花税过度到逐年收取土地税免不了背后的政治角力，州政府为此将需要联邦政府提供短期融资来帮助填补在转换期间的财政缺口。

总之， 总理和财长都坚持说澳洲并不需要提高整体的税收水平来填补2000亿疫情紧急财政支出。

疫情结束将迎来一个重振经济的计划。不可避免的，这意味着税务改革多管齐下，提升对就业和投资的税务激励。

法国金融部长Jean-Baptiste有句名言 ”税务制度的艺术就在于如何流最少的汗水撸到最多的羊毛“

https://www.afr.com/policy/econo ... ead-20200415-p54k0e



评论
麻烦楼主能否贴下原文全文，在付费墙后看不见。

谢谢

评论


让我试试复制。
就是急着翻译出来， 让更多的同学能看到，
往小里说，关乎大家手里的投资
往大里说，关乎华人的事业前程。

原文/英文作者应该也在赶稿子， 行文有些穿插。我中文近年也退步许多， 版主和同学们多提意见哈。

Scott Morrison has signalled that after the immediate coronavirus-induced crisis, tough and unpopular economic reform decisions are inevitable.

John KehoeSenior Writer

Apr 17, 2020 – 2.50pm

Save

Share

"Never let a good crisis go to waste," Winston Churchill famously said.

Now Scott Morrison is signalling that after the immediate coronavirus-induced economic crisis, tough and unpopular reform decisions are inevitable.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts the local economy to shrink a huge 6.7 per cent this year, the biggest contraction since the Great Depression in 1931.

RBA governor Philip Lowe warned the national cabinet on Thursday the status quo economic policies of the past two decades will need to change. Bloomberg

Australia faces its greatest economic crisis in generations, with coronavirus containment measures poised to lift unemployment towards 10 per cent.

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe warned the national cabinet on Thursday the status quo economic policies of the past two decades will not be enough to support employment, investment, productivity and people's living standards in the years ahead.

So Morrison, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and state leaders must develop a ruthless national economic blueprint in coming months.

Sacred cows that were deemed political no-go zones must be on the table.

Morrison warns past election pledges may be broken.

Former Treasury secretary John Fraser says, "Morrison is right - it will have to be something out of the ordinary given the circumstances."

Top of the list should be a taxation overhaul, permanent industrial relations changes to make it easier for struggling firms to take a chance on new employees, a coherent energy and climate framework and cutting red tape that is strangling small business.

The 10 per cent GST rate is about half the average rate of consumption taxes overseas.

The 125 recommendations in former Treasury secretary Ken Henry's 2010 landmark tax review are an obvious starting point.

The current arcane tax system is incapable of efficiently and fairly raising the revenue required for future years.

Australia has the second-highest tax impost on business profits and personal income combined out of 34 of the world's leading economies, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says. It raises 58.8 per cent of total federal and state government revenue from these sources, well above the OECD average of 34 per cent.

High corporate taxes deter investment, an obvious clash with Morrison's preference for the recovery to be led by business investment.

Generations of future workers alone can't repay the looming $1 trillion debt incurred by today's beneficiaries.

As reviews by the IMF, OECD and other independent economists have repeatedly said, Australia must switch its tax mix to raise more revenue from less economically damaging consumption taxes.

The 10 per cent goods and services tax rate is about half the average rate of consumption taxes overseas.

The politics of the GST are considered dire. Morrison has ruled out touching it despite exploring possible changes as treasurer.

An alternative could be to scrap the GST and adopt Henry's idea for a simpler "cash flow" business consumption tax on a much broader base, including food, health and education.

For business, cutting the 30 per cent corporate tax rate would be costly for an indebted federal budget.

So revenue raising offsets and alternatives must be considered, such as reducing the generosity of tax breaks for capital gains, curtailing franking credits and cutting the roughly $40 billion in superannuation tax breaks.

The 50 per cent capital gains tax break for individuals has mainly been used by people to invest in relatively passive and unproductive assets such as housing and shares already listed on the stock exchange.

The CGT discount replaced inflation indexation in 1999. Inflation and interest rates are significantly lower now so asset prices are less likely to be eaten away by inflation.

Labor's 2018 election policy to half the capital gains tax discount to 25 per cent seems imminently sensible.

A bolder revenue neutral company tax reform would be to adopt a corporate cash flow tax proposed by Ross Garnaut. economic adviser to the great reforming prime minister Bob Hawke.

Garnaut says Australia faces a much deeper crisis than during treasurer Paul Keating's "Banana republic" warning in 1986.

A corporate cash flow tax would give immediate 100 per cent tax deductions for new business investment - a powerful incentive to invest and boost the nation's waning productivity.

Higher productivity is the surest way to achieve higher wages.

The radical proposed corporate cash flow tax would raise more revenue from businesses earning oligopoly profits such as toll roads, electricity transmission companies and Silicon Valley technology giants.

High investing and innovating firms such as biotechnology darling CSL would probably pay less tax.

Multinationals engaged in contrived cross-border profit shifting, debt deductions and tax haven abuse would pay more tax.

Small businesses which cannot exploit international tax arbitrage and are not earning super profits would be winners.

NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet is open to expanding the GST. Other reluctant states may also rethink their opposition with their budgets crippled by collapsing property tax revenue.

Perrottet is desperate to transition from ludicrous stamp duty on property purchases to a phased in land tax for real estate owners.

The enormous economic and social benefits include people moving closer to work and new jobs, less congestion, home upsizing by growing families, downsizing by older people and less volatile revenue streams for states.

To achieve the politically fraught shift from a one-off stamp duty to an annual land tax, states may need commonwealth bridging finance or debt guarantees to fill the revenue gap during a phased in transition.

Morrison and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann insist they do not want to raise overall tax levels to pay for the more than $200 billion in emergency spending.

Growing the economy out of the crisis will be the plan. But that inevitably means a switch in the tax mix to sharpen incentives to work and invest. One dollar of tax raised from one tax can be more or less economically damaging than $1 of tax raised from another source.

"The art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing," France's finance minister, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, once famously declared.

In other words, the largest possible amount of revenue with the smallest possible amount of economic and political damage.

That's what this crisis demands.

SIGN UP NOW


评论
最后一句亮了，如何割韭菜，撸羊毛，是一门艺术

评论
这是势在必行的事

评论
万税万税万万税

每年交地税了

评论
房价会怎么样？

评论
看来看去还是房产改革比较容易

评论
希望赶快降低最低工资

评论
预测以下税种在5年内出台

1 坐实土地税或者房产税。
2 自住房增值税，应该增值部分50%需要交税
3 gst最后还是会加到15
4 高科技企业特种税
5 疫情levy
6 遗产税

评论
当年的矿税，也该重新开征了

评论

基本是比较务实的，对，这是势在必行的事

评论
必然会发生，澳洲既然不能承担无责任印钞，那只能从资产端收税。不然这个坑没法填。

评论
以后任何工程不会透支了, 因为沒钱了，呵呵

评论
Scott Morrison 赶紧滚蛋吧

评论
啥经济改革。明明就是税务改革！

评论

扩大税基

评论
我去，估计和美国一样年年交地税将成为必然！
房价涨得越多，地税收到越厉害。房住不炒要成为澳洲新标准了。唉，要成为韭菜了，一动手就打在我资产的核心了，典型劫中产济贫。

本来等着下半年捡漏，看来不能多买投资房了。

评论
有房阶层的又要被砍好几刀了

评论
政府花了那么多钱 当然要有人来还啦  当然问题是

1)谁还 -- 拿补助多的公司还还是怎么样
2）多长时间还

评论

是要改革，但是细节全是作者个人意见，全凭猜测。

评论
想怎么改

评论

除了收税，更应该考虑福利改革。

而且注意，这篇是记者评论的专栏，并不是政府的意见。

评论
封6个月代价太高了，赶快解封吧，德国，美国都比澳洲差的远，都要解封了

评论
投资方向大部分落在于消极的，不能提高劳动生产率的资产上，比如房子和上市的股票

这句话算是指路明灯了，房住不炒算是各个国家目前的共识，好事。

评论
自由党真会搞经济
把房价抬上来然后开始剪羊毛了

评论
观望

评论
没有看懂哪些人是赢家

评论
*大刀阔斧的税务改革，
*更改劳资关系法来使挣扎中的企业敢于启用新人，
*连贯一致的能源和环境气候政策框架，
*扫除对小企业的束缚。

这几条都能做好的话，那老莫和新冠对澳洲真可以算是有再造之恩了。

评论
資產税。
澳洲中文论坛热点