唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）称最新的美国通货膨胀数据为“大数字”，并表示，美联储委员会应将利率降低一个百分点。他的财政部长将超出预期的数字归因于政府的政策。两项胜利的声明都为时过早。
美联储像往常一样忽略特朗普。下周会达成时，它不会降低美国的费率，而斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）试图宣布通货膨胀数字的信用却忽略了这样一个事实，即它们是乔伊·拜登（Joe Biden）总统期间的下半年开始朝着美联储2％通货膨胀目标的漫长趋势的一部分。
data-testid =“ image”> <图片class =“”>他在担任总统几个月中释放的混乱尚未出现在经济数据中。那可能会改变。 Credit: Bloomberg
Nothing the Trump administration has done in the first chaotic months of his presidency would yet have had a material impact on inflation, although that might change quite soon.
The May data was, however, better than economists had forecast, with headline inflation edging up 0.1 percentage points from April and down从去年5月开始的0.9个百分点。 “Core” inflation (excluding volatile food and energy prices) was steady month-on-month but had fallen to 2.8 per cent from 3.4 per cent last May.
Market economists, expecting that the first signs of Trump’s tariffs would show up in the numbers, had anticipated a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points in headline inflation and 0.3 percentage points for core inflation.
LoadingThat the tariffs had minimal impact shouldn’t have been a surprise.
Not only have they been messily implemented, with some on pause for 90 days (until July 9), some amended and the crucial tariffs on China bouncing around like yo-yos, but US importers have also pre-emptively acted to prepare for them.
There was a big surge in imports to the US in March, to record levels, after Trump announced 2月份的关税（钢，铝和汽车）。 Imports, however, fell away sharply in April and US and Chinese ports data showed a dramatic plunge in imports from China, in particular, in May.
AdvertisementThe March surge has been attributed to “front-loading,” or importers rushing to build their inventories before特朗普在4月2日宣布的更广泛的特朗普关税可能会生效。这些膨胀的股票的存在意味着关税对消费者的价格的影响将需要一些时间来过滤到通货膨胀数据。
也有一种轶事证据，即公司正在等待灰尘安顿下来，并且最终的关税环境清晰地构成了最终的关税，以在表演之前出现。
<图片class =“”>美联社杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）。中央银行将要等到关税的全部图片及其对通货膨胀数量的全部效果。 compilation of surveys undertaken by the 12 regional Fed banks, said last week that there had been “widespread” reports from companies that they expected costs and prices to rise at a faster rate, with some of the districts reporting that those surveyed expected the cost increases to be “strong, significant or substantial.”
All the district reports, the Fed said, indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices and that the companies that planned to pass through tariff-related costs to customers expected to do so within three months.
That fits with what consumer-facing companies have been saying in their investor presentations and makes sense. They are saying that the tariffs are too material to be absorbed and will be passed on.
LoadingAllowing for the buffer provided by the front-loading of imports in March, the question mark over what will happen when the pause on the reciprocal tariffs公司不愿意提高价格并损失销售额，直到他们期望持续的成本增加，预计关税的影响将在一年中剩下的时间里逐渐显示。
数据在未来三到六个月内的数据数据可以更好地反映出
Data over the next three to six months will better reflect the impacts of the tariffs on the US economy.Credit: Bloomberg
The price hikes in those categories were offset by a decline in the prices of new cars (a segment where the tariffs are expected to eventually have a substantial鸡蛋，汽油和空气票价在全球的油价上下降了15％以上我们的习俗和边境保护人员。等到关税的全部情况及其对通货膨胀数量的影响。它也希望了解关税对价格的影响及其对基本经济的影响之间的动态。
可以想象，可能与他们宣布的不确定的价格相关联 - 他们的价格可能会增加。动荡的情绪 - 将导致美国的经济增长降低，这将减少需求并钝化征收征收的通货膨胀影响。
。
也可以想象，结果可能会缩小增长和飙升通货膨胀 - 急速升高 - 停滞 - 这将迫使美联储在打击eark at of the point at the point at the Is the IS
特朗普一直在提倡较低的利率，并在语言上殴打美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell），因为他没有交付他们比以往任何时候都更需要他们。 class =“ l54g0” data-testid =“ pul-Quote”>
似乎并不是特朗普和他的顾问损害鲍威尔和美联储的信誉会损害美国的经济和市场，并且更有可能增加在美国的投资风险。 “将支付应付债务的利息要少得多。如此重要！！！。”共和党人正在就此法案进行谈判。
鲍威尔（Powell）在明年5月（但不作为州长）的任期（但不是担任州长）到期，特朗普不能被特朗普（Bessent）撤职。随着Bessent本人和前美联储凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的竞争，他们因纪念秘书的角色而失去了竞选者的角色。这使我们的货币政策不太可信和可预测。
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