新西兰Weekly Insight 12.7.21
在新西兰
1. Economists prediction on OCR hike: 50% chance of a 25 basis-point hike to 0.5% in November, 0.75% by August 2022, third hike by May 2023, and finished at 1.25% by the end of 2023.
2. 80% of the mortgage book needing to be refixed in the next 6-12 months, will be affected by the first hike.
3. more properties (especially for those that has development potential) are selling by Negotiation or Tender, as oppose to auction.
4. ANZ, Westpac, ASB & BNZ expect OCR to start increasing in late November. While Kiwibank expects it will be in May next year. ANZ expect the OCR will hit 1.75% by Feb 2023. Westpac expects there will be three hikes - November 21, February 22 and May 2022, which will take the OCR from the current 0.25% to 1% by May 2022.
5. However, RENZ might be cautious as a rising rate too much will impact on NZ dollar and inflationary pressure
6. The house price is warming back up according to a survey of FOMO increased back to 60%, as opposed to 51% last month, and fear of over-paying dropped to 25% from last month 29%, despite 53% agents felt prices were rising in their location. Lack of listing is the main reason.
7. Strong signal that home buyers are not fancy apartments, at least not in the near future, as the 2-bedroom off-plan apartments in Auckland is $240,000 CHEAPER now than they were in 2017.
8. The prediction from the Treasury about the house price will increase by just 0.9% in 2022 could be far off the reality. Recently National MP and Green MP explained the 0.9% was based on Govt's housing market interventions and their "ASSUMPTIONS" about how buyers would respond to it.
9. Kiwis are tending to ask parents for support in order to get into the property ladder. Mortgage Lab estimate 60% - 70% of Kiwi parents had helped their children for their first home.
10. Last week the total number of listing increased by 13%, sold% was 67% (1% drop compared to one week before)
评论
经济学家都是扯蛋没有一次预测准确的！
经济学家都是受到政府的授意发布政府想让老百姓做的事（包括远离房地产投机好让它们独占房地产投机的红利）
现在就是谁能从父母那里弄到更多的首付，同时从银行贷到更多的贷款，谁就是最后的赢家！
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决策者基于自己的预期所做出的决策创造出的未来，恰恰是预期本身的自我实现。
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这个加息是死，不加息也是死，无解。。。。
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大概率会按照这个预测来啊！！
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经济学家理应先回答去年七月你们预测准确率是多少？然后，再做今年七月的预测。
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完全赞同你的第一句话！经济学这个学科就是幌子