After this week, we might need to rethink the concept of comparative advantage in trading relationships with the US.
The winners in trade with the US won’t necessarily be those who can produce goods more efficiently than others, but those countries with lower tariff rates on those goods than their competitors.
Over the next few days, Donald Trump will send out letters to about a dozen countries informing them of the tariff rate the US has set on their exports to the US, with those rates to come into effect on August 1.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some countries might be given a three-week extension to negotiate.Credit: Bloomberg
On Wednesday, the 90-day pause on the imposition of Trump’s “互惠”关税结束。 Those tariffs ranged from 10 per cent to 49 per cent when they were first announced on April 2. The pause was designed to give countries time to negotiate individual trade deals.
So far, Trump has gained only a framework agreement with the UK, the outline of a deal with Vietnam and a fragile truce with China from the pause, a far cry from the “90 deals in 90 days” his administration promised.
Trump has consequently opted to unilaterally dictate the tariff rates, although his Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said at the weekend that some countries might be given a three-week extension to negotiate.
“There’s a lot of congestion in the home stretch,” Bessent said on Fox News Sunday.
“So, by telling our trading partners that they could boomerang back to the April 2 date (and the reciprocal tariff rates), I think it’s really going to move things along the next couple of days and weeks,” he said.
Trump said on Sunday that he had already signed some letters.
Advertisement“So, we’re going to start sending letters out to various countries starting tomorrow. They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70 per cent tariffs to 10 and 20 per cent tariffs,” he said.
Loading“It’s a lot of money for our country, but we’re giving them a bargain,” he said, continuing to demonstrate his ignorance of the way tariffs work.
Tariffs are paid when goods are landed in the US by the importer – they’re由美国公司支付，这可能会吸收一些成本或将其中的一些或全部传递给消费者。 They are a tax on domestic consumption.
If the tariff rates are going to range from 10 per cent to 70 per cent they will create massive arbitrage opportunities.
Countries that were uncompetitive in a regime where the average US tariff was about 2.5 per cent are suddenly going to be very competitive if their rate is 10 per cent and their competitors are being hit with tariffs that are multiples of that level.
The hotchpotch of tariffs that the Trump administration envisages will create chaos within the global trading system and the supply chains that support it, along with opportunities and threats for individual economies.这对美国海关也将是一场行政噩梦。
美国知道其差异关税可能导致尝试游戏该政权，尤其担心中国可能在2018 - 19年度贸易战期间做的事情，在特朗普的第一任总统期间，当时许多中国向美国的出口被其他亚洲国家和墨西哥重新派遣。
在与越南的交易中宣布，在交易中宣布，在越南的交易中，它在越来越多的地方降低了46％的百分比，并将其降低到20％。
，该利率将在与其他主要贸易伙伴的交易中施加类似的，涉及中国的条款，以及对与中国贸易的其他限制。鉴于中国也是大多数其他经济体的主要贸易伙伴，因此美国试图隔离中国的尝试可能会经历重大的推动力。
中国已经在重新指导其出口。 5月，其对美国的出口比去年同月的出口低43％，但其总出口量增长了近5％。向东南亚国家的出口增长了15％，欧盟的出口增长了12％。特朗普的部门关税是全球贸易环境变更的终结。美国对钢和铝的进口征收了50％的征收，对汽车和汽车零件的进口征收25％。
特朗普预测了
已经预测了 - 政府正在编译必要的文件 - 进一步的部门关税，对药品，半导体，半导体，木材和铜和铜的差异，更愿意的一周，更愿意，更可能是，更可能是，这是不可能的，更可能是，这是不可或缺的，这是tentern的范围。任何未来的新部门关税。 The EU, for instance, is a major exporter of pharmaceuticals to the US.
The EU accounts for about 14 per cent of all US goods imports and is America’s second-largest trade partner, behind China.
While Bessent said there had been “very good progress” in discussions with the EU, and the EU itself has said it is hopeful that an agreement in principle can be signed, US demands that US companies be exempt根据欧盟法规，欧盟接受农业出口的17％的征收征收，以及对钢铁，铝，汽车和可能的药品的部门关税，对任何最终交易都是巨大的障碍。
>欧盟，欧盟已经征服了自己的潜在报道，以$ 11的范围（覆盖了我们的范围）（$ 116）（$ 116）如果其谈判破裂，它可以部署。
美国和欧盟之间进行全面贸易战的潜力很高，这增加了对全球贸易的威胁以及美国与中国现有贸易敌对行动所带来的全球经济。欧洲和中国之间的紧张局势也随着中国对美国的出口量的下降而越来越越来越大。 srcset =“ https://static.ffx.io/images/qunzoom_0.378%2c$ multiply_0.9788%2c$ ratio_1.5%2C$ Widt H_756％2C $ x_0％2C $ y_0/t_crop_custom/q_86％2CF_AUTO/2F5D3C96EB7ADF58E5BBBB2A6B2A6B30C0AFDC6D2281C5A， https://static.ffx.io/images/qunzoom_0.378%2c$ multiply_1.9577%2C$ ratio_1.5%2C$ WIDTH_75 6％2C $ x_0％2C $ y_0/t_crop_custom/q_62％2CF_AUTO/2F5D3C96EB7ADF58E5BB2A6B2A6B30C0AFDC6D281C5A 2x“高度=“ 494”宽度=“ 740”/> 等待发货的车辆在中国上海的运输航站楼。 shifting flows of global trade are just starting to show up, an insight into their early impact on the US can be seen in US customs data, with tariff revenues hitting a record $US23 billion in May. That is a 270 per cent increase on the same month last year, a 25 per cent increase on the April number and a revenue stream that will obviously swell significantly once Trump’s post-July 9 tariff regime is in 这是一个很大的新税收来源，尽管它几乎不会在5月在美国的财政赤字中陷入3160亿美元。 。 ，而特朗普的关税可能会筹集近2万亿美元的美国公司和/或消费者在接下来的十年中保持不变的情况，如果他们将在现有的年度中保持一致，那么在现有的年度中， 是什么纠结，混乱，破坏性，网络特朗普正在为解决一个问题 - 美国的1.2万亿美元交易所影响的问题所能解决的问题，而不是在麦克罗（Macro）的企业中造成的努力，而这是更多的交易量，而不是更多的交易行动，而这是庞大的贸易范围，而这是庞大的贸易行为，而这是庞大的贸易习惯，而现在，这一问题是全方位的贸易行为。在世界上。 市场回顾新闻通讯是当天交易的包装。 每个工作日下午。 aria-hidded =“ true” class =“ ktphl iie5g” focus =“ false” height =“ 1em” width =“ 1em”> <使用xlink：href =“ href =”＃icon-save“> save log in in ，， regiss <！ - - > nester <！ - - - - - - - -
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