在新西兰
It's official - The Auckland housing market has turned
Monday 19 October 2015
It’s official. Core Logic have declared that the Auckland market has turned.
By Miriam Bell
“I’m going to call this....Auckland has already turned,” Core Logic director of research Jonno Ingerson says the NZ Property Investor Federation conference on the weekend.
One of the measures he looks at is bank valuation activity against sales activity as they “almost perfectly match.”
He says bank valuations have decreased in Auckland – to the point that it is slower than elsewhere in the country.
Ingerson said that while Auckland has turned surrounding regions, particularly Whangarei, Hamilton and Tauranga had already taken off and some buyers may have missed the boat already.
Another factor is that the number of property listings has slowed when they should be picking up on a seasonal basis.
“Listings should be screaming up at this time of the year as we come into Christmas,” he said. “The number of new listings is starting to back off and that’s anti-seasonal.”
“That’s very unusual.”
Ingerson also told delegates to be very careful using median sale price as a measure of what is going on. He prefers a stratified median price index which gives a better picture of what is happening in the market.
As for reasons behind the fall, Ingerson, suggested there were a variety of reasons for the turnaround.
“The Auckland market is slowing, probably driven by China’s slowdown along with the Government’s tax changes and the looming LVR changes,” he said
However, the city’s supply shortage means there is no quick fix to the price pressures in the market.
For these reasons, Aucklanders will continue to move out into other areas like Hamilton and Tauranga – as current evidence shows they are doing in growing numbers.
Ingerson said sales activity in the regions will continue to strengthen but it is important to remember that different factors affect different markets.
While Auckland’s values are not likely to show strong increases for some time, that does not mean that values in other markets will catch those of Auckland, he said.
“The gap between Auckland and the rest of the main centres does not always close. Again, there are different factors, such as the local economy, at play in all these markets.
“So, while values are definitely picking up in other centres, like Hamilton and Tauranga, I wouldn’t expect that prices in other centres will ever catch those in Auckland.”
Ingerson added it is important not to overlook the fact there is still a colossal amount of Chinese money set to flow into the New Zealand market.
http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/5524/the-auckland-market-has-turned?utm_source=LL&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=%5BThe+Landlord%5D+It%27s+official+-+The+Auckland+housing+market+has+turned
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哈哈哈，，，这图配的，，，，
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空军准备空降抄底
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等到房地产彻底冷却臭大街了，再抄，现在早着呢。
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Jonno Ingerson在NZIPF Annual Cobference总结是奥克兰房价会放慢但还是会升。
他说这次boom以历史数据走势来说还有几年走没结束。
并且奥克兰房价如果用美元和人民币来算，比几年前都便宜。
他还说中国钱非常多要从中国流出投资到全球。
最后jonno说奥克兰跟之外的房价差距会越来越厉害，并且没什么几率会回降
不止他，anz也这么觉得。
还有Dolf de Roos也很看好奥克兰，因为奥克兰人口增长是新西兰之冠，自然房价提升也是之冠。
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你一说房价要降，投资客就都慌了！哈哈，笑而不语
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阿海， 过去几年空军已经被打得溃不成军， 都已经掉到18层地狱了。 你就饶过人家吧， 这次我们多头认输一回。
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坐等多军出现，先把帖子养养肥。。。。
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Jonno展示97年到现在的房价和净移民数量两个图很有意思
2000到2003年净移民非常厉害，接着2004到2006年之间的房价升的特别厉害。
最近两年的净移民。。。
大家往下补充吧
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饭点过了空军就要来围剿你了:D
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空军最好别倒，总需要人当我们房东的租客嘛哈哈!
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空军就是无房者？这是什么华丽丽的逻辑？
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投资者要是那么容易慌就根本进不到这个领域。
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海军来了。
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认输的意思是房价真会降？
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Lease您这话的意思是真的要降了？求您把话说明白，您说什么我都信，别说的含含糊糊让我坐立不安啊
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空军是不是一群买不起房，天天盼着腰斩的人的意思？？
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既然你那么相信我，那我就说得更加明白一点：近来空军气势较盛，我就干脆让他们彻底high一回。等他们真的觉得他们可以翻身做主人了，我再把他们狠狠地打得彻底趴下。
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要不要这么狠啊
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战争开始了好玩哈哈
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多头们，这次恐怕你们要失望了， 地下钱庄已被卡死，国内有几千亿的热钱被卡住，没人敢动
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通过港股通可以正儿八经的把钱转出来。
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人民币要变成国际货币之一，必须取消任何限制货币国内和国外流通的规定。
所以迟早人民币潮会飞向全球各地的。
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Lease兄好像很不爽了。。。哈哈
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赶尽杀绝的意思
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发帖不要付费更不要负责. 可以断章取义，可以本末倒置，可以黑白颠倒，可以随心所欲.这几天才开始看下论坛，搞笑的，搞鬼的，搞人气的，搞发泄的，就是没有找到几篇搞逻辑的.不过也蛮有意思的.
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请看我的回复，点我名字看我的回帖，你会发现你要的逻辑和数据
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当人民币没有支撑而飞向世界的时候，就是人民币崩盘的时候。知道为啥美国发现了美元后还要加息吸引回流吗，知道所有大宗商品都用美元计价的时候，美元还不能无限qe吗？从这点看，人民币飞向全世界也是不可能无限的，也是必须在一个稳定的输出和汇率的情况下的，所以人民币潮不可能出现。