在新西兰
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/ar ... to-end-of-the-earth
New Zealand is proving surprisingly popular despite being near the end of the earth. So much so that policy makers keep having to rewrite their economic forecasts.
A record influx of migrants in the past two years has seen more people seeking work, reducing pressure for wage rises and helping to keep inflation well below the central bank’s target. This encouraged the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to reverse policy in 2015, cutting interest rates four times in six months and saying further easing is possible in 2016.
“Everybody has continued to be surprised at how strong immigration has remained,” said Craig Ebert, senior economist at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “Every month you think surely this is the month when it starts to cool off, and it just doesn’t. Where it goes will be really important for the economic story in the next year or two.”
Despite being at the bottom of the world and a more than 12-hour flight from Shanghai or San Francisco, New Zealand remains attractive to migrants for its political stability,lifestyle and relatively strong economy. More New Zealanders are also staying home rather than emigrating to neighboring Australia, where the end of a mining boom has meant fewer high-paying jobs for foreigners there.
New Zealand’s population grew 2 percent in the year through September to 4.6 million, the fastest pace in more than 20 years.
By contrast, Australia’s population growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the year through June as the economy weakened, making it less attractive to migrants. About 21,300 New Zealand citizens departed for Australia in the year through November, down from 48,600 three years earlier, according to government figures.
Foreign student arrivals to New Zealand have surged 82 percent in the past two years as institutions attract young Indians and Chinese, while the number arriving on work visas has increased 25 percent since 2013 amid increased demand in the construction and software development industries. The U.K. was the biggest source of workers followed by France, Australia and Germany in the most recent 12-month period.
The RBNZ last month estimated net arrivals of working-age migrants surged to a record 55,400 in 2015 -- 32 percent higher than its projection just 12 months earlier and three-and-a-half times its 2013 forecast.
Treasury and bank economists have also been wrong-footed by the strength of the inflow, which has coincided with falling oil prices and slower economic growth to drive inflation as low as 0.3 percent. The Reserve Bank aims for 2 percent.
Governor Graeme Wheeler, who has now unwound all of his 2014 rate tightening, said Dec. 10 the RBNZ had been surprised by the scale of immigration. While the boost in population has stoked consumption and housing demand, it has been the supply side impact on the labor market that has affected the economy more quickly, giving it the capacity to absorb growth without pushing up prices, he said.
Wheeler expects 120,000 more immigrants in the three years through December 2018.
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Meanwhile in China:
China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/chinese-stocks-trigger-trading-halt-after-csi-300-declines-5-
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这样看来说不定要加息啊
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海哥新年好
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房市肯定不会差。
不过， 要很好（两位数以上的增长），也难。
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中国已经几次熔断了，这里会好吗？
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经济好，通胀升，2016 Q4加息
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中国股市继续电脑大爆炸。中国沪深300指数在九时五十七分开市后，两分钟内狂跌百份之七。再度触发「熔断机制」封盘，已是「熔断机制」实施后第二次股市狂跌..。花生酒水已買......................
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等着听分析。
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新年好啊
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9%我就很满足了
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管它怎么涨，只要不腰斩就行了。。。嘿嘿
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中国感冒了，大家一起打喷嚏吧！别高兴太早！
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中国之前先发政策收紧外汇兑换的条件，加强管控，然后美元加息，人民币暴跌，股市暴跌，国内资金想逃出来都难啊。中国出台新政还是很有前瞻性的啊。
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欧耶，涨涨涨
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新西兰经济不错，移民数上涨，游客上涨，已经成为了经济上涨的新动力！
中国，永远都不需要为中国担心。中国崩溃论几十年了，居然崩溃成第二大经济体了！老百姓吃苦，勒紧裤腰带为国家做贡献，经济也不会垮！
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好有限吧，中国澳洲好不了，新西兰也就够呛了
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股市不好其实对相对风险较低的property market，其实是利好。
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哈哈，任何事情对房市都是利好。。。
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不夸才怪 中国经济肯定大大的影响新西兰
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我觉得这个不是没有道理的,纵观投资来说国人一般不是股票就是房子
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腰斩也不是不可能，
1.利率超过10%，
2.奥克兰火山爆发，
3.Winston Perters 当首相，停止所有移民，
4.奥克兰房租下降 50%，
当以上4点都成立时，奥克兰房价可能下降 50%，其可能性不比我在奥克兰被蛇咬大多少，可惜那时候当初交不起 20% 首付的人可能已经失业了，还是捡不到便宜。
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那些在等的，就算是腰斩了还是会要等，到白送为止。。。哈哈
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只要看看 Christchurch 这个建在河沙上的城市，刚地震过后，还在3星期一小震，3个月一大震，都没腰斩，就知道，奥克兰光火山爆发都腰斩不了。
不过只要不在乎和岛毛作邻居，Otara 那边房子均价倒是只有 $49.4 万。
https://www.qv.co.nz/resources/residential-sales-prices-by-suburb