澳新旅游圈短期内收益甚微，长期看有什么收益？
澳洲广播公司报道
下个星期新西兰和澳洲的跨塔斯曼海旅游泡泡将开放，但是它能给政府的押宝带来经济效益吗？
首先，作为单向无检疫行程，这不是真正意义的旅游圈。
新西兰人可以来澳洲到新州，北领地参观游览，但是澳洲人将不能够前往新西兰旅游。
然而，考虑旅游的新西兰人依旧受到该国外交和贸易部的警告。
外交和贸易部的一名发言人说：” 我们的旅行检疫依然是在目前情况下不要去海外旅行。“
”这个旅游圈的开放并不自动导致旅行建议的改变。“
当返回国时，新西兰的公民和永久居民依旧保持着隔离检疫要求。
他们将必须进入检疫酒店隔离14天，费用自己承担。
这样做预计将阻止相当数量的人取消旅行打算。
新州大学经济学教授Arghya Ghosh 说：“塔斯曼海两边的人有理由变得谨慎起来， 也许是由于维州的经历或者看到了海外相反的经历。“
”基于所有这些原因，我认为经济效益甚微。“
澳航，捷星，新西兰航空都有航班飞，虽然期待已久开放了边境，但是航空公司并没有看到需求巨幅增长。
澳洲副总理Michael McCormack说，除了促进旅游外，旅行圈将使得那些想来农场工作，摘水果剪羊毛的人更加容易前来。
NZRelo 主任兼创始人Mark Berger说：
” 如果政府把这当成摇钱树，它们会痛苦地失望的。“
基于其数千个会员的反馈来看，他认为旅游圈不会被广泛运用。
”对新西兰人而言，旅游热点是布里斯本和昆州因为那里有游乐园，等等。“
“还有许多的新西兰人在昆州的矿区，在西澳珀斯的石油业工作。“
“因此没有真正的意义。“
Ghosh 教授说，这个旅游圈更有可能在形成澳洲新的国际旅游协议方面提供帮助，但是收益不是马上就看到的。“
“虽然经济收益从短期看也许不大，我认为主要的收益是在这个实验本身—我们能在不影响已经取得的进步情况下，我们能够安全地开放到什么程度？“
“如果新冠病毒在这三个地方（新州，北领地和新西兰）没有恶化，那么我们逐渐扩大开放。“
”如果形势变得恶化，我们应当有能力关闭，即使我们没有
关闭新西兰将关闭。“
“这钟情况下，我们得到了该怎样做的教训，更确切地说前面什么事情不能做。“
原文链接
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020 ... -economics/12751224
评论
原文如下
Governments warned not to bank on 'cash cow' from New Zealand-Australian trans-Tasman travel 'bubble'
The New Zealand and Australian trans-Tasman travel 'bubble' opens next week, but will it deliver the economic results the Government is betting on?
For starters, it's not so much a bubble as a one-way quarantine-free trip.
New Zealanders can come to Australia to visit New South Wales or the Northern Territory, but Australians won't be able to travel to New Zealand.
Kiwis considering travel are, however, still being warned by the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to think again.
"Our travel advice remains that New Zealanders do not travel overseas at the moment," said an MFAT spokeswoman.
"The opening of the travel bubble will not automatically result in a change of travel advice."
A quarantine requirement remains enforced when citizens or private residents of New Zealand return home.
They will need to enter and pay for the costs of 14 days in isolation in a quarantine hotel.
That's expected to stop a substantial amount of people from travelling.
People on both sides of [the] Tasman have rightly become very cautious, maybe due to the Victorian experience or seeing the adverse experience overseas," said Arghya Ghosh, professor of economics from the University of NSW.
"For all these reasons I think the effect will be minimal."
Qantas, Jetstar and Air New Zealand all have flights available but despite the long-awaited opening of borders, the airlines have not seen a huge surge in demand.
"I think it's fair to say there's been steady interest, but off a really low base," a Qantas spokesman said.
Australian Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said as well as a boost for tourism, the bubble would also make it easier for people who wanted to come and work on farms, fruit picking or shearing.
"If governments are banking on this as a cash cow they will be sorely disappointed," said Mark Berger, director and founder of NZRelo.
He does not think the bubble will be widely used, based on feedback from thousands of his members.
"No they're not going to use it … people are saying it's not very useful," Mr Berger said.
"For New Zealanders, the hotspots are Brisbane and Queensland because of all of the fun parks etc.
"There's a lot of New Zealanders working in the mines in Queensland and in the oil industry in Perth, Western Australia.
"So there's no real point."
Professor Ghosh said the bubble is more likely to aid in forming part of Australia's new international travel agreements but the rewards won't be immediate.
"While the economic benefit might be small in the short run, the main benefit, I feel, is in the experiment itself — how far can we open safely without jeopardising the progress that we have made?" he said.
"If COVID-19 doesn't get worse in any of these three places (NZ, NT, and NSW), then we can open up incrementally.
"If it gets worse, we should have the ability to close down and even if we do not NZ will.
"In that case, we learn some lessons on what to do, or more appropriately what not to do going forward."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020 ... -economics/12751224
评论
澳新的旅游泡泡，
按新州大学教授的看法，
说白了就是澳洲在探索，摸索如何开放，
在安全的前提下开放到什么程度
评论
说探索比较靠谱
不然就凭这个回去后还要隔离，新西兰人没理由要过来啊
评论
吸引新西兰人来当蔬菜水果采摘工人吗？
评论
慢慢来吧，这不是立竿见影的事。
评论
摸着石头过河
评论
什么时候才能开放中国游啊？
评论
只有昆州，西澳，SA,TAS 和新西兰互相开放，才会变得有意义。
但是万事开头难，总得有个开始吧？
评论
象征大于实际意义！
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