Web alert - warning on 'crazy' house prices
One of the most outspoken sceptics of Australian property prices has launched a new effort to raise awareness of “crazy” housing prices and policies.
In an effort to turn losing a bet about a local housing bubble into winning more followers, University of Western Sydney associate professor of economics Steve Keen has unveiled keenwalk.com.au.
The site will highlight the 224 kilometre journey on foot from Parliament House in Canberra to Mount Kosciuszko in the Snowy Mountains he is making in April, after losing a wager with Macquarie Bank analyst Rory Robertson that home prices would fall 40 per cent from peak to trough in a year.
Professor Keen will wear a t-shirt with the words, “I was hopelessly wrong on house prices. Ask me how.”
Last year, capital city house prices rose by 12.1 per cent, hitting a new high, as demand from first-home buyers sparked a revival at the lower end of the market, while Australia’s strong economy bolstered the top end.
Undaunted, Professor Keen is asking members of the public who “agree that Australia’s housing prices and policies are crazy” to join him for 15 kilometre stretches of the walk, expected to take him eight days in total. The site will also raise money for the Swags for Homeless charity, which distributes weatherproof swags to Australia's 16,000 homeless.
“I’m happy to walk from Parliament House to Mt Kosciuszko if I can draw attention to the absurdity of basing economic policy on making housing more unaffordable,” said Professor Keen.
He also reminded Mr Robertson that the second part of the bet - whether Australian home prices would drop 40 per cent over 10 to 15 years - “is still alive and well.”
“Rory may yet have to follow in my footsteps,” he said.
Mr Robertson said in November that if Australian house prices ever fell by 40 per cent from any peak in his lifetime, he would follow in Professor Keen's footsteps.
Professor Keen said the main reason home prices surged in 2009 was the government’s first home owners’ grant boost, which has created a caste of “sacrificial lambs of Australia’s so far successful evasion of the GFC”.
He pointed to a recent Fujitsu Consulting study which predicted that 40 per cent of the 250,000 first time buyers who entered the market in the last year and a half are experiencing some degree of mortgage stress, with that share expected to rise to 47 per cent by December.
Fujitsu describes mild mortgage stress as borrowers reprioritising their bills or borrowing more from other sources in order to maintain their home loan repayments. In more severe mortgage stress, borrowers are forced to refinance loans or sell their homes.
However, Mr Robertson again warned against too much pessimism.
"Betting the house on an economist's forecast typically is not a smart move," Mr Robertson said today. "Unfortunately, Dr Keen recklessly encouraged everyday Australians to sell their homes at what turned out to be the peak of the global financial crisis, and the trough in local house prices."
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敢作敢当，好。
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呵呵，应该是敢说敢当。
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the age 上有很多人对这个事情的评论。 非常热闹。值得一看。
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好久没见你了，最近怎么样了？
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还行，不过将要被失业了。 :) 在等消息和找工作。 回头给你电话聊。
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记得深圳也有一个的‘专家’跟人赌深圳的房价，呵呵
这年头，专家太多
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澳洲尾生，赞！
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这教授怎么混出来的！
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:) 他自己减肥,还能上报纸.多好....
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比中国那些应该被定期枪毙一些的同行有担当得多了~~~
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这位专家的错在于，即便前景再糟糕，他也不应该跑到媒体上宣扬类似末日论的论调。那时候，他上电视说，他要卖房子，清掉自己所有的debt，他还鼓励所有人都做同样的事。不清楚有多少人听了他的意见真的这么干了，真干了的话肯定损失不小。而且那时候进一步打击大家的信心，并没有任何正面意义。反倒是应该让大家保持镇静。
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稍微歪个楼。。。你头像里那个是什么东西？是真的吗？
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专家一般都是脑科砖家
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我以为LZ要打赌呢？
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比那个巴克利好多了
居然用驴屁股代替人屁股
真不知道被代替的那个人在旁边围观的时候，怎么还能笑得出来
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专家视钱如粪土?
说涨就涨, 说降就降, 那早发财了...
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这家伙搞的纯理论那些曲线还是有点道理的，但是他没有把政府干预和移民经济等因素加进去，也可以从这个角度看-------正是由他这帮人的“危机论”，才有政府不惜老本花光所有的钱投入进去，而不至于让澳洲经济步入其他发达国家后尘。
搞j经济预测的就是这样，弄不好就搞砸了，最近的例子就是一月份央行利息，有多少银行里的经济学家预测是涨的，结果满地找眼镜不是，是吧.
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