The Reserve Bank is poised to deliver its fastest cut in interest rates since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic as it seeks to protect the economy from the fallout of US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff war and encourage households to open their wallets.
But the impact of the Trump plan may turn out to be a small positive if United States-based manufacturers leave America in favour of other nations with lower tariffs such as Australia, according to the independent Productivity委员会。
Financial markets and most economists expect RBA governor Michele Bullock to announce another interest rate cut on Tuesday.Credit: Bloomberg
The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy board started its two-day meeting on Monday.金融市场和大多数经济学家期望它会在官方现金利率中降低额外的四分之一百分点。
降低了降低利率，利率将为两年低点3.6％。 It would be the first time the bank has delivered back-to-back rate cuts since March 2020 when the RBA sought to protect the country from the fallout of the pandemic.
On a $600,000 mortgage, a rate cut on Tuesday would be worth $100 a month and take to $300 the monthly savings since the Reserve Bank started easing monetary policy in February.
LoadingLower inflation, which fell to 2.1 per cent in梅（May）和经济增长缓慢，加上特朗普关税议程的潜在影响，都推动了对周二降低税率的期望，而八月份则很有可能另一种降低利率的机会。
持续的担忧是就业市场的持续实力。在过去的一年中，失业率仍然约为4.1％，该国增加了近33万个工作。
最新的ANZ-Indeed量度衡量工作广告，周一发布，6月份提高了1.8％，在一年中达到了最高水平。
“ data-testid="article-body-bottom">Callam Pickering, Asia-Pacific chief economist for the jobs site, Indeed, said while the jobs market might be strong, low inflation and persistently weak household spending meant the economy needed more support.
“We believe the RBA will need to cut rates at least another couple of times this year to provide sufficient support to households and businesses, while ensuring that the unemployment rate remains low and we avoid他说。表演。Mismision建议提出的关税可能不会给澳大利亚的经济带来这样的问题。
Donald Trump is due to update his “Liberation Day” tariff agenda this week.Credit: AP
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, alongside those on aluminium, steel and automobile parts, could lead to a 0.4 per cent lift in Australia’s gross domestic product, the commission said, as productive assets such as machinery and manufacturing facilities were moved out of the US towards countries with lower tariffs.
That would slightly increase Australian production of goods and services, the report found, further boosted by cheaper imports to Australia from the rest of the world as they redirect their supply away from the US.
However, Productivity Commission deputy chair Alex罗布森说，不确定性和美国贸易政策风险的间接影响可能会带来深远的成本。 “The global uncertainty [that the proposed tariffs] have brought about could affect living standards in Australia and around the world.”
Robson also warned against Australia imposing retaliatory tariffs, noting Australia’s prosperity had been built on free trade.
“Further retaliatory escalation could spiral into a broader trade war, which would bring serious consequences for Australia and the world,” he said.
与联邦财政部和储备银行汇编的储备相矛盾，澳大利亚可以通过继续谈论谈话并在自由开放的贸易上进行谈话，并在散步中行走。”自“解放日”以来，美国的“基线”关税率高于钢和铝的“基准”税率。
特朗普将于7月9日确认，尽管所有国家的关税水平都会降低，尽管所有进口商都将面临10％的命中。 Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
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